Canadian stocks founder on Fed easing views
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — Canadian stocks fell Wednesday, led by gold mining and energy stocks, as investors pared expectations for the size and speed of an expected monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve. The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell 145.85 points, or 1.15%, to 12,538.83. A report in Wednesday’s Wall Street Journal saying the Fed’s purchase of Treasury bonds will likely be limited to a few hundred-billion dollars over several months, in contrast with trillions spent during the financial crisis, helped strengthen the dollar. That weighed on commodities, often seen as an alternative store of value to currencies. Canada’s main gold index fell 1.8%, led by a 3.5% loss in Eldorado Gold Corp. . Canada’s energy index dropped 1.3% as crude oil futures also retreated 84 cents, or 1%, to $81.74 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news.
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Asian markets advance as market sentiment improves; Dollar, weak
Forex: USD/JPY upside limited at 83.85 FXstreet.com (Barcelona) – Asian markets have advanced Monday favoured by improved market sentiment after a positive session in Wall Street last Friday, wi…
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The Bond ‘Bubble’
The bond market is a bubble, and the little guy is blowing it. That has been a constant refrain on Wall Street, as retail investors poured billions into bond mutual funds. But they have had no choice if they wanted to earn income.
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Mark Zuckerberg Gives Newark an Education
Each day, Inc.’s reporters scour the Web for the most important and interesting news to entrepreneurs. Here’s what we found today:
The Facebook-funded school system . Mark Zuckerberg will appear on Oprah tomorrow to discuss his plans to donate $100 million to the Newark, New Jersey school system. Zuck was born and raised in Westchester County, and by all accounts has no roots in Newark, but The New York Times reports that the 26-year-old CEO was moved by a meeting with Newark Mayor Cory A. Booker in July. Booker has, according to the story, been campaigning lately to raise money for the Newark school district, which was deemed a failure in 1995 and has since been controlled by the state. So far, Booker’s received millions of dollars from Oprah, herself, and sources say Zuckerberg is hoping his $100 million will lay the groundwork for a future education foundation. The Times writes, “This would be by far the largest publicly known gift by Mr. Zuckerberg, whose fortune Forbes magazine estimated last year at $2 billion.” Talk about good timing .
Blockbuster’s bust. Okay, it’s not really a bust. The country’s largest video company has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Bloomberg broke the news this morning, and since, it seems like everyone has an opinion. Ars Technica calls the filing “giving in.” The Wall Street Journal breaks down highlights and lowlights. MarketWatch writes that the company, by restructuring, “outlives its usefulness.” We almost hate to ask, but what’s your take?
A toolkit of SEO resources. The web is flooded with hundreds of sites and blogs claiming to have the secrets to good SEO. However, according to tech entrepreneur and SEO expert Neil Patel, “I know there are a lot of resources on SEO, but most of them are junk.” In his latest blog post, Patel has weeded through through the junk to find 53 worthwhile SEO resources . Compiled neatly all in one place, Patel’s suggestions offer news, information, and tips about SEO. Everything you’ve ever wanted to know about SEO.
When early sales can kill your tech business. Yes, some sales are better than no sales. But, as Steve Blank writes on his blog today, early sales success can often make sales teams content and cause infighting when engineers want to introduce a new product or service that’s better for the business’ long-term health. “I see this same pattern in early stage startups,” Blank writes. “Early sales look fine, but often plateau. Engineering comes into a staff meeting with several innovative ideas and the head of sales and/or marketing shoot them down with the cry of ‘It will kill our current sales.’” How to deal with these situations when the start-up may need to switch its business model (or “pivot” in Blankspeak)? “Pivots are not subject to a vote in the exec staff meeting. CEO’s and their boards make the Pivot decisions.”
Is this the Etsy of manufacturing? Shapeways, the Dutch upstart “custom manufacturing juggernaut” aims to be “the Kinko’s of 3-D printing.” So reports Fast Company, in an in-depth interview with the company’s CEO, Peter Weijmarshausen. He discusses how he scored $5 million from Union Square Ventures , the firm that backed Twitter and Etsy.
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PGA Tour Championship Is Like A Wall Street Payday
Atlanta, GA, United States (AHN) – It is a payday that would make a Wall Street hedge fund manager take notice.
The Tour Championship, the PGA Tour’s version of the Super Bowl, is a cash bonanza. There is huge money there for the taking at the East Lake Golf Club outside Atlanta this week.
And get this, with only 30 players left to divide the spoils, the rich get richer this time of year on the PGA Tour.
The Tour doesn’t like to talk about money. It prefers to talk about all the dollars that are donated to charity over the course of a long golf season. But the fact remains that even the unlucky guy who finishes dead last on Sunday, will walk away with $295,000.
Not bad for hitting four days worth of substandard golf shots, but just chump change compared to the top of the heap.
The FedEx Cup bonus pool, the cash carrot that has been dangled in front of the tour’s players all season, starts with a whopping $10 million to the winner. The top five players who have emerged from three weeks of “playoffs” leading up to this money-grab opportunity, have the best chance of carting off the $10 million.
The $10 million is just for the winner, there is a total pot of $35 million that will come into play on Sunday.
Matt Kuchar, who lives near East Lake for the time being, but will soon call Sea Island on the coast of Georgia his new home, is first in the standings and naturally has the best chance to win it all. He’s followed in the top five by Dustin Johnson, Charley Hoffman, Steve Stricker and Paul Casey.
So you don’t finish first and win “The Cup” — no problem. Would you settle for a mere $3 million? The overall FedEx Cup runnerup banks that amount. Third place, $2 million, fourth $1.5 million and fifth, a lousy $1 million.
It’s like a Wall Street bonus payment week.
Tenth in the final standings still warrants a $500,000 payday.
Oh, and don’t forget the prize money for the Tour Championship. There’s still $7.5 million to pass out there. There’s the measly $1,350,000 to the winner, $810,000 to the runnerup, $517,000 for third, $360,000 for fourth and $300,000 to finish fifth.
Last man in the field pockets $120,000 with the chance for another $175,000 from the FedEx pool.
Nice work if you’re good enough to have a tour card and finish in the top 30.
However, the world’s richest golfer won’t get richer this week.
Tiger Woods, the top-ranked player in the world, did not earn a spot in the championship and he’ll have to be content to keep working on his game for the upcoming Ryder Cup matches.
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Asian shares gain on economic optimism
Asian stock markets climbed Monday, encouraged by gains on Wall Street and Chinese economic indicators released over the weekend. Sentiment was bolstered by the China figures which suggested the world’s No. 2 economy isn’t slowing as abruptly as feared…. China – Wall Street – Stock market – Economy – Asia
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Treasuries Yield Increases On 10-Year Notes
New York, NY, United States (AHN) – Mid-day trading on Wall Street markets by investors sent Treasuries falling for the third consecutive Friday.
As 10-year Treasuries fell, the yield rose to a one-month high, a signal that investors did not anticipate the world’s largest economy was falling into another recession.
The yield on 10-year notes gained 3 basis points as of mid-day Friday, which was 0.03 percentage points, to 2.79 percent. So far this week, yield on the notes has gained 8 basis points.
News on Friday that U.S. inventories grew the most in two years, coupled with news on Thursday that first time jobless claims were down, helped to bolster investor confidence.
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General Guides for FOREX Trading Newbie
Being new to FOREX trading? Don’t worry, getting started in FOREX trading is easy and you can always test your skills first in a demo account before you go ‘live’ with real money. To get started in FOREX trading, we have to get to know what FOREX is. For the inexperienced, FOREX trading involves buying and selling the different currencies of the world. A FOREX deal is made when one buys one currency and sells another at the same time. It is always traded in pairs, Euro/USD, CHF/USD, USD/JPY…you get ‘short’ in a currency every time to buy another and the profit is made when you buy-low and sell-high.
FOREX market is the largest trading market in the world. It yields an average turnover of $1.9 trillion daily and the figure is nearly 30 times larger than the total volume of equity trades in United States. FOREX trading is very unique as the trades are done between two counterparts via electronic network or telephone connections. There is no centralized location as stocks or futures markets and trades are done around the clock. Everyday FOREX trade begins when the financial centers in Sydney start their day, and moves around the globe to Tokyo, London, and then New York. Traders can always response to the market regardless of the local time.
Although FOREX trading involves such a big volume of trades nowadays, it is not made available for the publics until year 1998. In the past, the FOREX market was not offered to small speculators or individual traders due to the large minimum business sizes and extremely strict financial requirements. At that time, only banks, big multi-national cooperation and major currency dealers were able to take advantage of the currency exchange market’s extraordinary liquidity and strong trending nature of world’s main currency exchange rates. Only until the late 90s, FOREX brokers are allowed to break huge sized inter-bank units into smaller units and offer these units to individual traders like you and me. Nowadays with the rapid growth of Internet and communications technology, FOREX trading has become one of the hottest make-money-at-home-businesses for those who wish to avoid conventional 9-5 day job.
As a fact in FOREX trading, FOREX is mainly traded in large international bank. According to Wall Street Journal Europe, 73% of the trade volume is covered by the major ten. Deutsche Bank, topping the table, had covered 17% of the total currency trades; followed by UBS in the second and Citi Group in third; taking 12.5% and 7.5% of the market. Other large financial cooperation in the list is HSBC, Barclays, Merril Lynch, J. P. Morgan Chase, Coldman Sachs, ABN Amro, and Morgan Stanley. For market participants segment, approximately half of the transactions done were strictly between dealers (i.e. Bank, or large currency dealer); others are mainly between dealer and non-financial institutions.
To start trading on FOREX, one must first learn how to read FOREX quotes. Foreign exchange quotes are always listed in pairs (e.g. USD/JPY 109.2): the first listed currency is known as the base currency with a constant value of 1 unit; while the currency listed in the second is known as counter. In our given example, USD/JPY 109.2 means a dollar of United States Dollar is equal to 109.2 Japanese Yen. In other words, the quote shows the relative value of one currency compare to the other. It means the value USD had been increased when USD/JPY quote goes up
However, a two-sided quote (e.g. EUR/USD 1.2435/1.2440) consisting of a ‘bid’ and ‘ask’ is often seen. The ‘bid’ price is the price at which you can sell the base currency; while the ‘ask’ price is where you can buy the base currency. The different of ‘bid & ask’ price is commonly known as ‘spread’. In the example of EUR/USD 1.2435/1.2440, this means you can buy 1 Euro Dollar with 1.2440 USD or sell 1 Euro 1.2435. Currency brokers make their profit through these differences of ‘bid & ask’ price and this is how they manage to provide their services to individual investors without charging them commission fees.
You don’t need much tools to trade in FOREX market. A computer with Internet access, a funded FOREX account with foreign currency exchange broker, and a trading system should be sufficient to get things started.
To reduce the risks of losing money, some basic charting knowledge is as well recommended before you start trading FOREX. FOREX charts assist the investor by providing a visual representation of exchange rate fluctuations. Many variables affect currency exchange rates, such as interest rates, bank policies, geopolitics, and even the time of day may affect exchange rates. As stated by expert FOREX trader Peter Bain, charting is an essential tool in FOREX trading. In his newsletter, he reveals that daily charts, hourly charts, and 15-minute charts are used while trading in FOREX. As quoted from his informative newsletter — “Daily chart will help you define the overall trend from a position trading point-of-view, and the hourly (one hour) chart will give you a feel for the intraday trend. The 15-minute chart is used for entry and exit – with assistance from the five-minute chart, where price is moving quickly, and you need to be closer to the action.”
Being one of the technical method, FOREX charting is based on the principal ‘history repeats itself’. FOREX traders who study charts predict the market future by evaluating past market performance. The time frame used for charting might differs for different traders, some analyze the past one week, some prefer six months analysis, and there are also traders who analyze the market for the past five to ten years before getting involved in a FOREX trade. A huge variety of FOREX charts are available in the market. Some charting methods are very simple, using a few FOREX indicators to show trading direction; other charts may include up to forty indicators and those are mainly for advance traders that are more skillful. MACD Divergence, RSI, RSI range, and price are some of the well-known indicators in charting.
As the article is meant for FOREX rookies, you are probably one of those who are looking forward to get involved in the FOREX market. However, there is no shortcut to be success in FOREX trading. Trading in FOREX is not as simple as it seen from outside. Especially there’s margin involved in FOREX trading, you might lose a lot of money in the beginning and learn your lessons in a hard way. Take all the time you need to learn this new trading skill well — practice everything you learn with a demo account before you consider going ‘live’ with your own money. Seminars, eBooks, Internet, papers, as well as video courses are all your needs to get involved. I wish you good luck and good profit making in your FOREX trades.
Author: Teddy Low
Article Source: EzineArticles.com
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Forex Trading – Getting Started
Forex Trading: a Beginner’s Guide
The forex market is the world’s largest international currency trading market operating non-stop during the working week. Most forex trading is done by professionals such as bankers. Generally forex trading is done through a forex broker – but there is nothing to stop anyone trading currencies. Forex currency trading allows buyers and sellers to buy the currency they need for their business and sellers who have earned currency to exchange what they have for a more convenient currency. The world’s largest banks dominate forex and according to a survey in The Wall Street Journal Europe, the ten most active traders who are engaged in forex trading account for almost 73% of trading volume.
However, a sizeable proportion of the remainder of forex trading is speculative with traders building up an investment which they wish to liquidate at some stage for profit. While a currency may increase or decrease in value relative to a wide range of currencies, all forex trading transactions are based upon currency pairs. So, although the Euro may be ‘strong’ against a basket of currencies, traders will be trading in just one currency pair and may simply concern themselves with the Euro/US Dollar ( EUR/USD) ratio. Changes in relative values of currencies may be gradual or triggered by specific events such as are unfolding at the time of writing this – the toxic debt crisis.
Because the markets for currencies are global, the volumes traded every day are vast. For the large corporate investors, the great benefits of trading on Forex are:
- Enormous liquidity – over $4 trillion per day, that’s $4,000,000,000. This means that there’s always someone ready to trade with you
- Every one of the world’s free currencies are traded – this means that you may trade the currency you want at any time
- Twenty four – hour trading during the 5-day working week
- Operations are global which mean that you can trade with any part of the world at any time
From the point of view of the smaller trader there’s lots of benefits too, such as:
- A rapidly-changing market – that’s one which is always changing and offering the chance to make money
- Very well developed mechanisms for controlling risk
- Ability to go long or short – this means that you can make money either in rising or falling markets
- Leverage trading – meaning that you can benefit from large-volume trading while having a relatively-low capital base
- Lots of options for zero-commission trading
How the forex Market Works
As forex is all about foreign exchange, all transactions are made up from a currency pair – say, for instance, the Euro and the US Dollar. The basic tool for trading forex is the exchange rate which is expressed as a ratio between the values of the two currencies such as EUR/USD = 1.4086. This value, which is referred to as the ‘forex rate’ means that, at that particular time, one Euro would be worth 1.4086 US Dollars. This ratio is always expressed to 4 decimal places which means that you could see a forex rate of EUR/USD = 1.4086 or EUR/USD = 1.4087 but never EUR/USD = 1.40865. The rightmost digit of this ratio is referred to as a ‘pip’. So, a change from EUR/USD = 1.4086 to EUR/USD = 1.4088 would be referred to as a change of 2 pips. One pip, therefore is the smallest unit of trade.
With the forex rate at EUR/USD = 1.4086, an investor purchasing 1000 Euros using dollars would pay $1,408.60. If the forex rate then changed to EUR/USD = 1.5020, the investor could sell their 1000 Euros for $1,502.00 and bank the $93.40 as profit. If this doesn’t seem to be large amount to you, you have to put the sum into context. With a rising or falling market, the forex rate does not simply change in a uniform way but oscillates and profits can be taken many times per day as a rate oscillates around a trend.
When you’re expecting the value EUR/USD to fall, you might trade the other way by selling Euros for dollars and buying then back when the forex rate has changed to your advantage.
Is forex Risky?
When you trade on forex as in any form of currency trading, you’re in the business of currency speculation and it is just that – speculation. This means that there is some risk involved in forex currency trading as in any business but you might and should, take steps to minimise this. You can always set a limit to the downside of any trade, that means to define the maximum loss that you are prepared to accept if the market goes against you – and it will on occasions.
The best insurance against losing your shirt on the forex market is to set out to understand what you’re doing totally. Search the internet for a good forex trading tutorial and study it in detail- a bit of good forex education can go a long way!. When there’s bits you don’t understand, look for a good forex trading forum and ask lots and lots of questions. Many of the people who habitually answer your queries on this will have a good forex trading blog and this will probably not only give you answers to your questions but also provide lots of links to good sites. Be vigilant, however, watch out for forex trading scams. Don’t be too quick to part with your money and investigate anything very well before you shell out any hard-earned!
The forex Trading Systems
While you may be right in being cautious about any forex trading system that’s advertised, there are some good ones around. Most of them either utilise forex charts and by means of these, identify forex trading signals which tell the trader when to buy or sell. These signals will be made up of a particular change in a forex rate or a trend and these will have been devised by a forex trader who has studied long-term trends in the market so as to identify valid signals when they occur. Many of the systems will use forex trading software which identifies such signals from data inputs which are gathered automatically from market information sources. Some utilise automated forex trading software which can trigger trades automatically when the signals tell it to do so. If these sound too good to be true to you, look around for online forex trading systems which will allow you undertake some dummy trading to test them out. by doing this you can get some forex trading training by giving them a spin before you put real money on the table.
How Much do you Need to Start off with?
This is a bit of a ‘How long is a piece of string?’ question but there are ways for to be beginner to dip a toe into the water without needing a fortune to start with. The minimum trading size for most trades on forex is usually 100,000 units of any currency and this volume is referred to as a standard “lot”. However, there are many firms which offer the facility to purchase in dramatically-smaller lots than this and a bit of internet searching will soon locate these. There’s many adverts quoting only a couple of hundred dollars to get going! You will often see the term acciones trading forex and this is just a general term which covers the small guy trading forex. Small-scale trading facilities such as these are often called as forex mini trading.
Where do You Start?
The single most obvious answer is of course – on the internet! Online forex trading gives you direct access to the forex market and there’s lots and lots of companies out there who are in business just to deal with you online. Be vigilant, do spend the time to get some good forex trading education, again this can be provided online and set up your dummy account to trade before you attempt to go live. If you take care and take your time, there’s no reason why you shouldn’t be successful in forex trading so, have patience and stick at it!
Author: Philippa Holmes
Article Source: EzineArticles.com
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Forex Secrets – Delusion No1 – Forex Currency Rate And Economic Factors Impact On Exchange Rate
The delusion conceptually propounds that intraweek and intraday FOREX currency quotes movement is governed by either improvement or by deterioration of the states economic situation. But in reality, even in case the actual Forex news is superior to the estimated one, the FOREX quotes up/down movement is of 50/50 probability.
This statement is thoroughly important. Once the job of Forex trader is gambling on FOREX exchange rates differential (FOREX pairs up/down movement), the following is to be realized to obtain faultless profit:
FOREX pairs pricing mechanism (say at point X where you are completing the market analysis)
Factors imparting growth/decline to FOREX rates (up/down from point X).
Thus, having understood the FOREX rates factors effective at the extra-exchange (book-maker) FOREX market and the given currency motive factors, a trader must possess distinct knowledge of whether to buy or to sell the given currency pair.
So, what are these factors?
FOREX student suggest unambiguous interpretation of factors responsible for the price formation and the fluctuations there of:
Forex rate constitutes a demand-supply balance for a given goods (currency).
Any violation of this balance, (for instance, in case where the estimated news is in disagreement with the issued official one), results in the FOREX rates reciprocation in chase of a new demand-supply balance. Poor demand brings about decline in a certain currency rate, with a high demand leading to the growth of the latter. The situation continues as long as the currency buy/sell demand comes to balance at another level or at another point.
Referring to the B. Williams (Trading Chaos 2 Chapter 1 The market is what you are thinking of it):
Each world market is dedicated to distribute or share limited amount of something among those desirous to obtain it most of all. The market affects it by way of finding out and identifying the exact price? Underlying the buyer/sellers power absolute equilibrium point.
The above point is readily established by stock, futures, bonds, FOREX and options markets, be it either via an open auction or by virtue of a computerized facility. Markets spot this point prior to any misbalance being detectable by you or by me or even by traders at the exchange floor.
With this scenario holding true and it really does we are in position to jump at certain simple yet important conclusions as regards the information being circulated through the market and enjoying doubtless acceptance.
Thomas Demark was more laconic in Technical analysis – an emerging science:
Price movement is governed by demand and supply. Should demand exceed supply, theres a price rally and if visa versa, theres a price decline. All economists do share these underlying principles.
Hence, the role of fundamental analysis for FOREX market is readily apparent.
In scholar fiction one will discover roughly the following explanation, persistently wandering from book to book, from site to site and suggesting attaining successful trading at FOREX market by way of scrutinizing the countrys economic fundamental data, viz. by tracking the factors reflective of the countrys economy condition as below:
State economy condition dynamics indicators (GDP, trade & payments balance, current account, industrial production, etc. It is knowledge, that the higher the above indicators the faster the economic and the currency price growth);
Stock indices, via average arithmetic index of the countrys securities market condition and dynamics. E.g.: 0.3% daily DJI growth in the USA means that this certain day the shares of 30 leading US companies, being pictured by DJU, went 0.3% more expensive. By similarity, DAX30 is the major German index, incorporating the price of shares of the countrys 30 leading companies.
The countrys interest rate, since the higher the rate, the greater number of investors is eager to invest into the countrys economy and hence into national currency strength.
Rate of inflation (the higher the rate, the quicker the National Bank will hike the interest rate). With this assumption, the CPI constitutes a key factor.
Money supply growth in domestic market, which fact brings about the inflation, leading to the interest rate hike.
The countrys gold and currency reserve assets.
Variation dynamics correlation of: balances of payment, trade balance, state budget, gross domestic product (GDP), etc.
Trade and industry dynamics (industrial production, industrial orders, DGO, capacity utilization, retail sales, etc.)
Construction statistics (construction spending, new home sales, housing under construction, building permits, etc.)
Labor statistics (unemployment rate, new jobs, etc.)
Society investigations (consumer confidence, consumer sentiment, purchase managers and service managers sentiment, etc.)
To be considered additionally are the countrys political stability and tranquility (clearly, any political, natural and other cataclysms are sure to turn investors nervous making them withdraw the investments from the country, thus weakening its national currency). And with the currency being the national economy derivative, changes in economic data will inevitably result in the above currency rate movement.
Conclusions:
Progress in economy results in the currency exchange rate rally.
Decrease in economic indicators leads to the national currency rate decline.
To sum it up, critical economic and political news (whose calendar is issued in advance and is familiar to any trader) constitute a standing factor giving rise to misbalance and causing the currency rate fluctuations.
In anticipation of important economic and political news FOREX pair crawl to the rates as inspired by the estimates (rumored trade), whereas upon actual news there occurs a pulse motion of FOREX pairs in accordance with the scheme below;
Forex rate grows if actual news are better than the estimated one;
Forex rate declines if actual news are worse than the estimated one.
ARE YOU FAMILIAR WITH THESE ABC BASICS OF STUDYING FOREX?
Do you accept that one can earn money by way of using these basics, known to every trader?
Then why, having absorbed these economic axioms, 90% of Forex traders in the world are losers rather than winners.
Where is the delusion of the above ABC truth, nudging traders towards losses? Let us perform sort of point-by-point analysis.
The currency exchange FOREX market is a book-makers one. It is gambling on rates difference without direct money delivery to the exchange market, except for hedging of traders funds by Forex brokers, via buy-sell difference especially during strong trends). Then, http://www.forexite.com reads: Trading is performed without actual currencies supply, which fact cuts overheads and enables Forexite to go long and short on the currency http://www.forexite.com/forexite_advantages/forex_advantages.html.
Comment: Have you ever met any book-makers;
- whose logics was coincident with that of THEIR clients (traders),
- whose stakes were being made in accordance with THEIR technical analysts forecasts, economic laws and common sense?
And what extent of doubt and skepticism should be attached to THEIR free recommendations, advice, surveys and forecasts, laid out at THEIR sites through THEIR analysts?
As a regular result, over 90% of the world traders are still loosing their deposits at FOREX each time they follow Thomas Demark stereotype that All the economists share these underlying principles.
Comment No.1. In as much as the above underlying principles are 90% contradictory to practice, it gives rise to the following question. Might these underlying principles, shared by all economists including Thomas Demark have possibly turned into dogma, alien to life and practice?
Comment No.2. What should a trader lean on: practice or dogma even if supported by great names, provided that the trader is purported at earning money?
FOREX analysts issuing their daily bulky market reviews are not FOREX traders in the overwhelming majority (see detailed discussion below). And on bringing together pairs 1, 2 and 3 there appears certain regularity.
Please, think over A. Elder words, that: FOREX rates and the fundamental analysis are tied together with a mile-long rope. The fundamental analysis is ultimately decisive. But anything is likely to happen prior to this eventuality. Another, yet no less renowned trader and analyst, Bill Williams underlines the same mental regularity of an experienced professional trader (level 3 of his traders skill rating as per Trading Chaos 2): On attaining level 3 you emerge as a self-provided pro trader. You are always familiar with the markets basic, usually invisible structure. You no longer need to refer to others opinions. You neednt read Wall Street Journal, watch market-oriented TV programs, and subscribe to information bulletins, waste money on information channels.
Comment: Logically, there is a counter-implication, that if You are eager to become a successful trader, You are to restrict the influence of various surveys and recommendations on yourself even in case they originate from the world famous Wall Street Journal, to say nothing of crude gurus in analyst skins who use to know ahead of time where currencies will go.
Forex news is a scheduled issue of fundamental data, which as a rule impairs FOREX rates a sharp pulse of motion. But then, why the currency rates movement vector is only 50% coincident with the ABC truism logics as to where the rate should rush in case of actual news being much better or worse than the estimate. And, please, make an attempt to answer the following question, stirring for every trader: why with the new being worse than expected (say, on US economy), the USD currency would initially fall by 40 pips (news work-off) but in 5 to 10 minutes it would swivel back and would display a 200-point rally, with no account to either the issued news or to common sense.
Below are some examples:
Fig. 1. GBPUSD chart as of April 1, 2005 after the news, positive for the GBP and negative for the US economy.
See Note below
In March the CIPS manufacturing index amounted to 52.0 (with the previous data revised from 51.8 to 51.6). Oil price in NYC has grown by USD 2.40 up to USD57.70 per bbl (new record of the latest 21 years). Non-farm payrolls in the USA was minimum since last July (previous data revised towards lower values). There has been a decline in the Michigan sentiment index to 92.6 (median estimate was 92.9, with 92.9 previously).
All the US indices faced a fall down. DJI at NYSE has fallen by 99.46 pips (-0.95%) towards closing at 10404.30. NASDAQ declined by 14.42 pips (-0.72%) to 1984.81. S&P500 slipped by 7.67 pips (-0.65%) to 1172.92. 30-yr US Bonds yielded 4.729 (0.037 lower as compared to the previous close). By contrary, FTSE100 has grown by 19.60 pips (+0.40%) to 4914.00.
Now, the question is to certified economists: what will happen to the GBPUSD within one day or even several hours upon publication of these data? You are right, USD should not simply fall down, it should collapse. Powerfully, swiftly. Well, well
And this time, the same question to experienced traders. By FOREX news headlines You might have guessed that the events are taking place at the Friday American session. Correct. Initially, anyway, the GBPUSD chart will go up by 100 pips (news wok-off), followed by a pullback. Then Forex chart starts a new rally.
It is now to be tracked whether the GBP will breach the latest rally high or not. If affirmative, it will rush up by approximately 160 pips (Elliott wave 1 was 100 pips, while EW 3 is 60% longer). But if the high is not breached? The GBP currency quote will in no way come to a standstill, moreover on Friday afternoon. Hence, – down, to the starting point! And, if breached, similar situation takes shape but the counting is performed in a down direction (EW1, being the same 100 pips plus 187 pips from 1.8826 to 1.8759 being EW 3).
The FOREX day trading tactics will be given scrutiny in a separate chapter. A still separate chapter will be dedicated to Friday trade at American session due to its inherent specifics and to strong seemingly inappropriate movement. The movement is, of course, appropriate. To say nothing of Friday. But it will be touched upon later.
Now, getting back to the currency chart. As apparent, the GBPUSD pair movement on Friday, April, 01, 2005 is in no way in conjunction with the US economy fundamental data. Each forex trader can provide from tens to hundreds of similar instances, where the news are of a certain vector, whereas, after a fraudulent rush along the news vector, a currency applies reverse thrust.
Thereafter, the next day, in daily currency surveys, certified economists are sure to explain all to us by way of inventing another undisguised nonsense, like: in spite of certain data, traders decided that the currency has already worked-off this side. But! How could this occur on Apr, 01, 2005, provided that the currency has been staying flat in a narrow range in the course of the whole of the European session?
Otherwise, another explanation may emerge, that forex traders were expecting still more inferior news on the US economy But! By how much more inferior, if according to DJ, the US non-farm payrolls MA was equivalent to 180K, with actual being +110K, estimate being +225K and prior being +243K? And in what manner do these economists count up world traders: by capita, by countries or by the funds, lost by those, who continued staying long in a holy belief in renowned academic scholars postulate of FOREX rates being tied up to countries economy statistics.
I wonder if Ill ever chance to witness legal procedures to be instituted against any of those famous scholars, so that no one would dare claim that fundamental data trigger rate spikes.
The same pertains to economists, writing about the way, hundreds of thousands traders throughout the globe have conspired to conclude that it is time to reverse the trends with absolutely no grounds. Is it really feasible?
Such reading-matter is, but hammering a single question into ones head: is it lie or is it stupidity of those cooking daily reports for taking traders for a ride, fooling them up and keeping them from the truth, which might be of great avail to them in daily trading. Traders are not a decisive factor, thus rates movement is in no way dependent on their will. Practically in no way.
Wanna check? Negotiate with tens of traders of the trading floor and arrange for a simultaneous entry long on some exotic FOREX pair. In so doing, try to push up either the NZDHKD, or the NZDCAD, or the HKDCAD. No need? I think so. Youll certainly suffer failure with the above, to say nothing of the EUR, GBP, CHF.
Another example:
Fig.2. GBPUSD movement as of May 13, 2005.
See Note below
This is an M15 chart of the American session, where the USD pair has grown by over 100 pips from 1.8583 to 1.8481 against the news, negative for the US economy:
Most indices have dropped down: DJI at NYSE by 49.36 pips (-0.48%) to close at 10140.12; S&P500 by 5.31 pips (-0.46%) to 1154.05. NASDAQ has grown by 12.92 pips (+0.66%) to1976.80. 30yr US Bonds yielded 4.484 (0.047 drop from previous close)
There is a fall in Michigan sentiment index. In May UMich was 85.3 with med est 90.0 and prior 87.7. So it was worse than the estimate, reaching the low since March, 2003. The index decline was being observed for the fifth month.
The April US export price index was +0.6% with prior of +0.7%.
Below are other similar examples of that same day.
Fig. 3. EURUSD chart as of May 13, 2005.
See Note below
Hundreds of examples may be offered, where the Forex news vector is opposite to that of the currency movement. Practically, actual news may happen to be superior or inferior to the estimate. FOREX quotes up/down movement is also of 50/50 probability irrespective of the above.
Why does it happen and what is the way for a trader to pinpoint entries and exits? This is going to be discussed in ensuing chapters of this book.
Note:
Full text of this article and pictures of examples http://www.masterforex-v.su/
If you wish to be trained on Trading System Masterforex-V – one of new and most effective techniques of trade on Forex in the world visit http://www.masterforex-v.su/
Author: Vyacheslav Vasilevich
Article Source: EzineArticles.com
Provided by: Credit card currency-exchange fees
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