The Forex Trading Course: A Self-Study Guide To Becoming a Successful Currency Trader

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Product Description
A pioneer in currency trading shares his vast knowledge The Forex Trading Course is a practical, hands-on guide to mastering currency trading. This book is designed to build an aspiring trader’s knowledge base in a step-by-step manner-with each major section followed by a thorough question-and-answer section to ensure mastery of the material. Written in a straightforward and accessible style, The Forex Trading Course outlines a practical way to integrate fundamen… More >>

The Forex Trading Course: A Self-Study Guide To Becoming a Successful Currency Trader

Forex Trading Strategies and the Trader’s Fallacy

The Trader’s Fallacy

The Trader’s Fallacy is one of the most familiar yet treacherous ways a Forex traders can go wrong. This is a huge pitfall when using any manual Forex trading system. Commonly called the “gambler’s fallacy” or “Monte Carlo fallacy” from gaming theory and also called the “maturity of chances fallacy”.

The Trader’s Fallacy is a powerful temptation that takes many different forms for the Forex trader. Any experienced gambler or Forex trader will recognize this feeling. It is that absolute conviction that because the roulette table has just had 5 red wins in a row that the next spin is more likely to come up black. The way trader’s fallacy really sucks in a trader or gambler is when the trader starts believing that because the “table is ripe” for a black, the trader then also raises his bet to take advantage of the “increased odds” of success. This is a leap into the black hole of “negative expectancy” and a step down the road to “Trader’s Ruin”.

“Expectancy” is a technical statistics term for a relatively simple concept. For Forex traders it is basically whether or not any given trade or series of trades is likely to make a profit. Positive expectancy defined in its most simple form for Forex traders, is that on the average, over time and many trades, for any give Forex trading system there is a probability that you will make more money than you will lose.

“Traders Ruin” is the statistical certainty in gambling or the Forex market that the player with the larger bankroll is more likely to end up with ALL the money! Since the Forex market has a functionally infinite bankroll the mathematical certainty is that over time the Trader will inevitably lose all his money to the market, EVEN IF THE ODDS ARE IN THE TRADERS FAVOR! Luckily there are steps the Forex trader can take to prevent this! You can read my other articles on Positive Expectancy and Trader’s Ruin to get more information on these concepts.

Back To The Trader’s Fallacy

If some random or chaotic process, like a roll of dice, the flip of a coin, or the Forex market appears to depart from normal random behavior over a series of normal cycles — for example if a coin flip comes up 7 heads in a row – the gambler’s fallacy is that irresistible feeling that the next flip has a higher chance of coming up tails. In a truly random process, like a coin flip, the odds are always the same. In the case of the coin flip, even after 7 heads in a row, the chances that the next flip will come up heads again are still 50%. The gambler might win the next toss or he might lose, but the odds are still only 50-50.

What often happens is the gambler will compound his error by raising his bet in the expectation that there is a better chance that the next flip will be tails. HE IS WRONG. If a gambler bets consistently like this over time, the statistical probability that he will lose all his money is near certain.The only thing that can save this turkey is an even less probable run of incredible luck.

The Forex market is not really random, but it is chaotic and there are so many variables in the market that true prediction is beyond current technology. What traders can do is stick to the probabilities of known situations. This is where technical analysis of charts and patterns in the market come into play along with studies of other factors that affect the market. Many traders spend thousands of hours and thousands of dollars studying market patterns and charts trying to predict market movements.

Most traders know of the various patterns that are used to help predict Forex market moves. These chart patterns or formations come with often colorful descriptive names like “head and shoulders,” “flag,” “gap,” and other patterns associated with candlestick charts like “engulfing,” or “hanging man” formations. Keeping track of these patterns over long periods of time may result in being able to predict a “probable” direction and sometimes even a value that the market will move. A Forex trading system can be devised to take advantage of this situation.

The trick is to use these patterns with strict mathematical discipline, something few traders can do on their own.

A greatly simplified example; after watching the market and it’s chart patterns for a long period of time, a trader might figure out that a “bull flag” pattern will end with an upward move in the market 7 out of 10 times (these are “made up numbers” just for this example). So the trader knows that over many trades, he can expect a trade to be profitable 70% of the time if he goes long on a bull flag. This is his Forex trading signal. If he then calculates his expectancy, he can establish an account size, a trade size, and stop loss value that will ensure positive expectancy for this trade.If the trader starts trading this system and follows the rules, over time he will make a profit.

Winning 70% of the time does not mean the trader will win 7 out of every 10 trades. It may happen that the trader gets 10 or more consecutive losses. This where the Forex trader can really get into trouble — when the system seems to stop working. It doesn’t take too many losses to induce frustration or even a little desperation in the average small trader; after all, we are only human and taking losses hurts! Especially if we follow our rules and get stopped out of trades that later would have been profitable.

If the Forex trading signal shows again after a series of losses, a trader can react one of several ways. Bad ways to react: The trader can think that the win is “due” because of the repeated failure and make a larger trade than normal hoping to recover losses from the losing trades on the feeling that his luck is “due for a change.” The trader can place the trade and then hold onto the trade even if it moves against him, taking on larger losses hoping that the situation will turn around. These are just two ways of falling for the Trader’s Fallacy and they will most likely result in the trader losing money.

There are two correct ways to respond, and both require that “iron willed discipline” that is so rare in traders. One correct response is to “trust the numbers” and merely place the trade on the signal as normal and if it turns against the trader, once again immediately quit the trade and take another small loss, or the trader can merely decided not to trade this pattern and watch the pattern long enough to ensure that with statistical certainty that the pattern has changed probability. These last two Forex trading strategies are the only moves that will over time fill the traders account with winnings.

Forex Trading Robots – A Way To Beat Trader’s Fallacy

The Forex market is chaotic and influenced by many factors that also affect the trader’s feelings and decisions. One of the easiest ways to avoid the temptation and aggravation of trying to integrate the thousands of variable factors in Forex trading is to adopt a mechanical Forex trading system. Forex trading software systems based on Forex trading signals and currency trading systems with carefully researched automated FX trading rules can take much of the frustration and guesswork out of Forex trading. These automatic Forex trading programs introduce the “discipline” necessary to actually achieve positive expectancy and avoid the pitfalls of Trader’s Ruin and the temptations of Trader’s Fallacy.

Automated Forex trading systems and mechanical trading software enforce trading discipline. This keeps losses small, and lets winning positions run with built in positive expectancy. It is Forex made easy. There are many excellent Online Forex Reviews of automated Forex trading systems that can do simulated Forex trading online, using Forex demo accounts, where the average trader can test them for up to 60 days without risk. The best of these programs also have 100% money back guarantees. Many will help the trader pick the best Forex broker compatible with their online Forex trading platform. Most offer full support setting up Forex demo accounts. Both beginning and experienced traders, can learn a tremendous amount just from the running the automated Forex trading software on the demo accounts. This experience will help you decide which is the best Forex system trading software for your goals. Let the experts develop winning systems while you just test their work for profitable results. Then relax and watch the Forex autotrading robots make money while you rake in the profits.

Author: Benjamin Theranbak
Article Source: EzineArticles.com
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Compare Forex Trading and Stock Trading

The forex (foreign currency exchange) market is the largest and most liquid financial market in the world. The forex market unlike stock markets is an over-the-counter market with no central exchange and clearing house where orders are matched.

Traditionally forex trading has not been popular with retail traders/investors (traders takes shorter term positions than investors) because forex market was only opened to Hedge Funds and was not accessible to retail traders like us. Only in recent years that forex trading is opened to retail traders. Comparatively stock trading has been around for much longer for retail investors. Recent advancement in computer and trading technologies has enabled low commission and easy access to retail traders to trade stock or foreign currency exchange from almost anywhere in the world with internet access. Easy access and low commission has tremendously increased the odds of winning for retail traders, both in stocks and forex. Which of the two is a better option for a trader? The comparisons of retail stock trading and retail forex trading are as follows;

• Nature of the Instrument
  The nature of the items being bought and sold between forex trading and stocks trading are different. In stocks trading, a trader is buying or selling a share in a specific company in a country. There are many different stock markets in the world. Many factors determine the rise or fall of a stock price. Refer to my article in under stock section to find more information about the factors that affect stock prices. Forex trading involves buying or selling of currency pairs. In a transaction, a trader buys a currency from one country, and sells the currency from another country. Therefore the term “exchange”. The trader is hoping that the value of the currency that he buys will rise with respect to the value of the currency that he sells. In essence, a forex trader is betting on the economic prospect (or at least her monetary policy) of one country against another country.

• Market Size & Liquidity
  Forex market is the largest market in the world. With daily transactions of over US$4 trillion, it dwarfs the stock markets. While there are thousands of different stocks in the stock markets, there are only a few currency pairs in the forex market. Therefore, forex trading is less prone to price manipulation by big players than stock trading. Huge market volume also means that the currency pairs enjoy greater liquidity than stocks. A forex trader can enter and exit the market easily. Stocks comparatively is less liquid, a trader may find problem exiting the market especially during major bad news. This is worse especially for small-cap stocks. Also due to its huge liquidity of forex market, forex traders can enjoy better price spread as compared to stock traders.

• Trading Hours & Its Disadvantage to Retail Stock Traders
  Forex market opens 24-hour while US stock market opens daily from 930am EST to 4pm EST. This means that Forex traders can choose to trade any hours while stock traders are limited to 930am EST to 4pm EST. One significant disadvantage of retail stock traders is that the stock markets are only opened to market makers during pre-market hours (8:30am – 9:20am EST) and post-market hours (4:30pm – 6:30pm EST). And it is during these pre-market and post-markets hours that most companies release the earnings results that would have great impact on the stock prices. This means that the retails traders (many of us) could only watch the price rise or drop during these hours. Besides, stop order would not be honored during this times. The forex traders do not suffer this significant disadvantage. Also, a stock trader may supplement his/her trading with forex trading outside the stock trading hours.

• Affordability
  In order to trade stocks, a trader needs to have quite a significant amount of capital in his account, at least a few tens of thousands in general. However, a forex trader can start trading with an account of only a few hundreds dollars. This is because forex trading allows for higher leverage. A forex trader could obtain larger transaction compared to stock market. Some forex brokers offers 100:1, 200:1 or 400:1. A leverage of 100:1 means that a US$1k in account could obtain a 100 times transaction value at US$100k. There is no interest charge for the leveraged money. Stock trading generally allows for not more than 2 times leverage in margin trading. There are interest charges associated with margin trading.

• Data Transparency & Analysis Overload
  There are thousands of different stocks in different industries. trader needs to research many stocks and picks the best few to trade. There are many factors that affect the stock prices. There are much more factors that may affects stock price than foreign currency exchange rates. The forex traders therefore can focus on few currency pairs to trade. On top of that, most data or news affecting currency exchange rate are announced officially, scheduled and in a transparent manner. Retail forex traders therefore have better chances of success than retail stock traders.

• Bear/Bull Stock Market Conditions
  Forex traders can trade in both way buying or selling currency pairs without any restrictions. However, stock traders have more constraints to trade and profit in bear market condition. There are more restrictions and costs associated with stock short selling. In a bull market when the economy is doing well, stock traders have a high chance of profitability if they buy stock first then sell it later. Savvy forex traders however, could operate in all market conditions.

• Trending Nature of Currency
  Major currencies are influenced by national financial policies and macro trends This national financial policies and macro trends tend to last long in a certain direction, either in monetary expansionary (rate cutting) or monetary contractionary cycle (rate hiking cycle). Stock prices however tend to fluctuate up and down due to many factors, many of these factors are micro and specific to the stocks. Therefore forex traders can better exploit the trends in foreign currency markets that stock traders in stock markets.

• Regulation
  Generally, most major stock markets are better regulated than forex markets. Therefore, traders need to be aware of this difference to stock markets. Fortunately, there are however many reputable forex brokers in the market. With prudence and proper research, it is not difficult to find a suitable reliable forex brokers.

Based on the above few points, forex trading seems to be a better trading option than stock trading, especially during these uncertainties in the global economy. During bull market condition, stock trading could be a viable alternative. A stock trader should definitely seriously consider supplementing their trading with forex trading. Forex trading enables a stock trader to exploit any opportunity arises during non stock trading hours, by trading in forex trading. Forex trading would also enable the stock traders to understand a more complete big picture of world economies operations and further enhance their stock trading skills.

Author: David K Smith
Article Source: EzineArticles.com
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How Do I Find the Best Forex Robot Available?

 

Finding The Best Forex Robot A forex robot is a computer software program which helps a forex trader by automatically executing trades in the forex market. Even unsupervised, forex robot software scans the market for long hours even while you sleep. It analyzes current market conditions and makes trades even without the attention of its owner. It can truly save a lot of time and effort from the trader himself and can earn him a lot of money efficiently and quickly. However, before availing one for yourself, you need to realize that in order to get the best results, you will need to purchase the best forex robot system that fits your needs. This means that you need to do robot traders and make your decision following your due diligence on which one you think is the best forex robot program. Do your Research In order to do this, you can follow these simple steps. The first step is to canvass for the best forex robot system in the market and look for any video tutorials and/or reviews which can guide you in reviewing and using these programs. You will need to know that robot traders are customizable and programmable. If you understood the video tutorials and you think you may have a good chance of making a decision on which robot you will consider using in your forex trading, then download and test it on a demo account first.  Be sure that the robot you choose comes with a money back guarantee, so that you may try it risk free. Use a Demo Account First! However, in determining what is the best forex robot for you, make sure that you do not play with real money just yet. You still need to prove to yourself that it is indeed the best forex robot software around which means that it should tailor-fit with your trading style. In addition, you have to be satisfied with the results so that such software will be most likely used in the future. While it is important that you do not go overboard with your decisions, you will also need to be extra careful especially when dealing with real money and live accounts.  Opting For Quality Models The next step is to determine if the price or cost of the best forex robot you have chosen is justified by its performance. Make sure that you are not purchasing an automated robot solely on price.  There are a lot of forex robot systems that have been designed and built with quality in mind by several companies and individuals. Sometimes, the price may be affordable for you, yet the quality of the product is sacrificed. It is very important that you make sure to test out the robot trader first, to get an idea of the quality of the product that you are purchasing.  You are Looking for Consistency and Accuracy It is important to realize that you will need a robot trader that is efficient and accurate in making trades in any market condition. There are various robots to choose from; made by individuals and companies that are highly skilled and very efficient in their design and models, but there are also robots created that just do not perform well.  That is why it is imperative to test robots that have money back guarantees. And finally, with these steps of finding the best forex robot for you, you have to be certain that you are truly ready in committing into such a program that will heighten your chances of gaining profit from the forex market. Make sure that the forex robot you choose will complement and match well with your personality and your trading style. But most importantly, you have to be most comfortable in using it and be able to genuinely use it as your guide and ally in trading for consistent pips in the forex market.  For more detailed information regarding forex robot trading systems click on the link below..

 

Finding The Best Forex Robot

 

A forex robot is a computer software program which helps a forex trader by automatically executing trades in the forex market. Even without human intervention, automated forex software can do its job for long hours even while you sleep. It monitors current market conditions and makes trades even without the supervision of its owner. It can truly save a lot of time and effort from the trader himself and can earn him a lot of money efficiently and quickly. However, before acquiring an automated trading system for yourself, you need to realize that in order to get the best results, you will need to purchase the best forex robot system in the market. This means that you need to do your due diligence and make your decision following your research on which one you think is the best forex robot program.

 

Do your Research

 

In order to do this, you can follow these simple steps. The first step is to canvass for the best forex robot system in the market and look for any video tutorials and/or reviews which can guide you in reviewing and using these programs. You will need to know that robot traders are customizable and programmable. If you understood the video tutorials and you think you may have a good chance of making a decision on which robot you will consider using in your forex trading, then download and test it on a demo account first.  Be sure that the robot you choose has a refund policy, so that you may try it risk free.

 

Use a Demo Account First!

 

However, in determining what is the best forex robot for you, make sure that you do not play with real money just yet. You still need to prove to yourself that it is indeed the best forex robot software around which means that it should tailor-fit with your trading style. In addition, you have to be satisfied with the results so that such software will be most likely used in the future. While it is important that you do not go overboard with your decisions, you will also need to be extra careful especially when dealing with real money and live accounts. 

 

Opting For Quality Models

 

The next step is to determine if the price or cost of the best forex robot you have chosen is justified by its performance. Make sure that you are not purchasing an automated robot solely on price.  There are a lot of forex robot systems that have been designed and built with quality in mind by several companies and individuals. Sometimes, the price may be affordable for you, yet the quality of the product is sacrificed. It is very important that you make sure to test out the robot trader first, to get an idea of the quality of the product that you are purchasing. 

 

You are Looking for Consistency and Accuracy

 

It is important to realize that you will need a robot trader that is efficient and accurate in making trades in any market condition. There are various robots to choose from; made by individuals and companies that are highly skilled and very efficient in their design and models, but there are also robots created that just do not perform well.  That is why it is imperative to test robots that have money back guarantees.

 

And finally, with these steps of finding the best forex robot for you, you have to be certain that you are truly ready in committing into such a program that will heighten your chances of gaining profit from the forex market. Make sure that the forex robot you choose will complement and match well with your personality and your trading style. But most importantly, you have to be most comfortable in using it and be able to genuinely use it as your guide and ally in trading for consistent pips in the forex market. 

 

For more detailed information regarding forex robot trading systems click on the link below..

 

Forex Trading Tools – Developing Your Skills For Consistent Profits

There are several Forex Trading Tools available to a trader. Yet with the multitude of such tools, the number of traders that make it to consistent profits are still so few. So the question that begs to be asked is:

If it’s not the forex trading tools that make a successful trader, then what does?

Some of the tools required to trade the forex currencies are obvious and basic. At the same time, there are quite a few others that aren’t. Yet it is these less obvious tools, while not having a direct impact on your trading results, influence your forex trading success in very subtle and important ways.

One of the reasons why forex traders find it so difficult to find success is not having the ability to see how everything works together in the forex markets. This ability to see the bigger picture is crucial to find success as a trader, because it influences the way you would use your trading tools to pull profits out of the markets.

The difference between novice traders and season traders is this:

Most novice traders only think about the minimum things required to start trading, while the experienced, seasoned traders often strive to utilize the maximum of the tools available to them.

In the game of forex trading, retail traders are usually the least informed and hold the weakest power to determine how the forex currencies. On the other hand, while the banks and large financial institutions have access to sophisticated forex trading tools, it doesn’t mean as a retail trader, you require all these tools for forex trading success. But you DO need to have all the trading tools required for forex trading success.

So what do you need to start your forex trading career?

The Basic Forex Trading Tools to Start Trading

These are the basic forex trading tools that you obviously need in order to trade the forex currencies, but these aren’t the only tools required for forex trading success:

1. Your Forex Trading Account

2. Your Forex Trading Platform

3. Your Forex Trading System

4. Your Forex Trading Risk Capital

In most cases, novice forex traders tend to think that this is all they need to become hugely profitable in the forex markets. It’s so simple and easy, right? It’s true, this is all you need to start trading. But what is not so obvious is that while this is what you need to START trading, it’s not necessarily what’s needed to be trading profitably!

Forex Trading Success is a journey where you, as a trader, are on a path of learning and growth. It’s a journey from point A to point B, where point B is consistent forex trading profits.

To think that a novice trader can become wildly successful with just these four trading tools alone is thinking a towering 100 story building can be constructed with only a pencil, a piece of paper, and 4 bricks. Other elements and tools are used to build your forex trading business but because they are in the background of what’s going on, they can be easily missed or dismissed in terms of their importance.

If these four tools are what is required for trading success, then we would have a lot more traders being profitable and rich, wouldn’t we?

Developing Your Skill To Use The Basic Forex Trading Tools

Developing your skill as a forex trader is necessary to become successful. The quality of the product is due to the quality of the craftsman. The more highly skilled you are, the more you are able to understand and utilize the nuances of forex trading tools.

On the surface, it may seem the skills required to use these forex trading tools would be the technical knowledge. Knowledge of how your trading platform works, how technical indicators are constructed, what they mean, and what would be the best ways of putting them together to create a forex trading system.

However, forex trading success isn’t a two dimensional thing consisting only of your trading account and a trading system. In reality, it’s a multi-dimensional thing that encompasses you not just as a trader but as a complete person. You have to learn a forex trading system suitable to you, the appropriate type of risk and money management strategies, developing a daily forex trading routine that matches what you want to accomplish in congruence with your actual life, maintaining your records and other supporting skills.

And these skills as a trader can’t be bought with money. It takes time, effort and discipline to develop your trading skills. Not only that, it does require actual trading experience to understand what emotions you go through and how to manage them in your forex trading business.

While it may seem to be a lot of work and study, it’s definitely possible to become a successful forex trader. Just don’t expect it to happen overnight, or you will be sorely disappointed. Even the best of traders are constantly learning new things about the markets, the subtleties of trading and of themselves as traders and persons. Although with the right forex trading education and mentorship you can reduce the time taken, in most cases you’ll still have to go through the experience of learning what it takes to be a successful forex trader.

Keep working on your trading skills in totality and soon you will find yourself having Consistent Forex Trading Profits.

Author: Ryan Lee Daniels
Article Source: EzineArticles.com
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How To Learn Forex Trading Online – How To Learn The Basics Of Forex Trading & Make Faster Profits

You may be surprised to learn how easy it is to learn the basics of Forex trading online and how quickly you can make money with Forex, depending on your Forex trading style. This article will explain how incredibly easy it is to learn the basics of Forex trading and how to make fast Forex profits. Keep reading to get instant access to free Forex video tutorials to help you get started.

You may have heard of the Forex market and you may have heard about a lot of people who make money with the Forex trading system. Forex trading is also commonly called currency trading. Many people are looking for ways to make extra income in their spare time and how they can learn Forex trading online. In order to learn Forex trading online you need to first learn the basics and how to successfully trade the Forex market.

If you are looking to invest your hard earned money into the Forex currency market then it is vital that you learn Forex trading online from experts in the field. Thankfully the internet makes it easy for people to find Forex tips at their fingertips with some very powerful Forex trading courses.

When you are looking at ways to learn Forex trading online there are some excellent Forex tutorials online that will explain many things to a beginner Forex trader like how the Forex foreign exchange market works, what Forex technical indicators are, what economic indicators you need to be aware of as a Forex trader, and the huge variety of Forex trading systems and options that are available to every Forex trader.

If you are just beginning your Forex education then it is vital that you DON’T dabble in any Forex trading until you have learn Forex trading online. Many online Forex trading courses understand the big step you are taking into the Forex market and have made this incredibly easy for you by offering free training, demonstrations, Forex tutorials and simulated Forex trading accounts.

The most significant feature when it comes to forex trading is to learn forex trading online so that you comprehend how to trade quickly and successfully. The more you are able to learn in your forex trading training the more understanding of the basics you will have and the more success will follow as a result of your comprehensive understanding of Forex fundamentals.

Locating a Forex tutorial or finding the best Forex trading course online in order to learn Forex at home is incredibly simple. Check out the website below to fast track your Forex education and learn the best Forex business system online with free Forex video tutorials.

Author: Karin I Manning
Article Source: EzineArticles.com
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Forex Secret – Forex Literature As A 90-95% Of The Traders Lose Their Deposit (Part II)

(See beginning of this article under name Forex Secret. Forex Literature As A 90-95% Of The Traders Loose Their Deposit. (Part I)

B. Williams quotes 5 bullets killing a trend, whereas I exemplify their insufficiency and I add up 11 more thereto, not denying the above 5 of them.

B. Williams idealizes the Elliott wave theory, whereas I show that the combination of fives and threes is none the idealizable, otherwise a mankind 100-year development project could have long been elaborated on the basis of Elliott waves pattern, leading to exasperation at the fact that humanity progress does not follow Elliott and Williams. The other thing is that nowadays brokers have mastered the job of manufacturing more waves out of the 5 initially.

The aforesaid is applicable to each of the 20 problems of Forex.

A portion of my live Forex trading methods are to be found in this book, while the other portion thereof is forwarded upon request. Those eager to continue training under my supervision as well as to trade live, please, feel free to contact me on my e-mail address below.
It all could be funny unless it were sad. But IT IS sad, because the above examples are scaring in number. Bearing it in mind, do, go again through excerpts from distinguished scholars books:

- Awesome Oscillator (AO) serves us keys from the Wonderland;

- Accelerator Oscillator (AC) gives us with significant superiority over other traders;

- using AO is similar to reading tomorrow’s “Wall Street Journal”, while using AC is reading of the day-after-tomorrow’s issue thereof;

- by using AO solely, one may attain profits even without any knowledge of current rate; should the oscillator turn down, one may merely ring one’s broker and say: “Sell at the market price!”.

As You have guessed, these are extracts from B. Williams’s “New aspects of Exchange Trade”. Have You read the thing? And now, please, give a glance to the a foregoing figure, depicting the way, the vaunted Williams’s indicators may entail an abyss of losses.

But what truly makes my blood boil is as follows. B. Williams is a professional psycho therapist and his narrative style is none of an incidental one. This is a suggestive method by virtue whereof he attempts to demonstrate the exclusive, correct and faultless nature of his trading technique. The “faultlessness” is to be discussed in an individual chapter, and my only claim here is that I can easily draw hundreds of examples, where one can bump into loss by way of following Williams’s indicators.

By myself, I am an advocate of theory of chaos. But this theory is disclosed by Williams in a very primitive and a superficial manner, which fact results in his blind follower losses. As to the author, he resorts to propaganda methods instead of providing a clearcut distinction between the cases, where the above theory is 100% effective and those, where it is not.
Williams could have explained to his admirers directly, that in these certain instances the theory is to be relied upon, while in these instances it is not to. The difference is in this, this and this. In the former instances one should necessarily enter, whereas in the latter instances one should abstain from entry. But the guy haven’t done the job (due to either not being desirous or to not having sufficient knowledge).

I was a success in finding out distinct operability criteria of the Williams’s technique. To achieve this, I had to improve the Alligator, by virtue whereof I enabled my students to easily pinpoint the difference between the Williams No.1 option (a trend, encouraging profits) and No.2 option (a flat, inflictive of losses).

By the by, it is supportive of the chaos theory methodological correctness and of imperfect Williams’s method structure, plotted on the basis thereof. Instead of acting upon the trader’s consciousness Williams resorts to forbidden subconscious programming procedures, thus stimulating man’s inherent and acquired instincts as if saying: “If You wanna get rich, follow me! My method empowers one to trade without a single glance at a price! The Awesome Oscillator constitutes a key from a Kingdom!” Etc., etc., etc…

Hence, only 1 of 20 Williams’s followers exhibits Forex-earning capabilities in a most favorable environment. Thus, under this statistics, B. Williams is better not to be idolized, the way he has been by the crowd of his admirers. On the other hand, other Forex maestros’ trading techniques are far worse than that of B. Williams. So, let’s continue illustrating Forex truisms being erroneous in live trading.

- The “Theory of Chaos” of B. Williams. The author has not advised what should be added up thereto. A separate chapter here is dedicated to the issue.

- Trader’s psychological problems. I haven’t found any revelations pertaining to THE WAYS OF ELIMINATING THESE PROBLEMS.

- The issue of a stop-loss order is certainly important: even under trend hedging is an indispensable protective shield against market surprise. But is the problem too far complicated to require a dozen pages’ elucidation? Has the author beheld any secret? Wah! He hasn’t noticed anything but he still has repeated all that wanders from book to book on Forex.

Once I was stunned by a question put forward by one of my students after having read B. Williams’s “Trading Chaos”: what’s the use of giving so much attention to the stop-loss problem and above all what’s the good of chewing over the role of safety cushions in the automobile industry as though readers are down with minority?

Doubtlessly, it’s funny reading that Williams has never violated traffic regulations, priding himself on the occasion. Any psychiatrist could tell a hell lot about such a personality type, although, I should admit that Williams is American, not Russian.

Drawing picturesque, memorizing examples, each scholar is right to insist on protective barrier placement as a loss killer. But there is hardly anyone to introduce certain novelty into the issue and to disclose the secret as to what there should be in the trader’s store besides a stop-loss to insure against his deposit melting and extra losses. A separate chapter here is targeted at the issue.

I have shortly come across an aphorism: “Genius is not to the effect, that nothing can be added thereto, but it is to the effect that nothing can be deleted there from”.

If You go through numerous books on Forex at this aspect angle, You are sure to surprisingly find out that 90-100% of their contents may be subject to withdrawal. WHY?
BECAUSE nothing new and 100% correct is offered therein. Instead, reiteration is going on of what is familiar to any professional, since everyone is itching to exhibit one’s originality by way of retelling: a paramount authority of FA over Forex exchange rates; continuation and reversal patterns; a stop-loss importance; a divergence being a component of a trend reversal, etc., i.e. book-to-book travelers.

“An outstanding Forex trading techniques” and “a genius scholar”, etc., making their appearance in books’ abstracts and annotations are off springs of 1% originality added up by an author to 99% of common knowledge.

Sale is publisher’s primary target, giving birth to “genius” mediocrities and plagiarism. Standing separately among these books are opuses by B. Williams, being admired and scrutinized regularly by the majority of scholars and by myself. But EVEN HE cannot be qualified as “genius” with account to the above formula. He is rather “eccentric” than “genius”.

The thing is not, that his technique is addenda-allowing (this fact backs the correct Williams’s choice of the chaos theory to be applied to Forex) and I easily managed to add 11 trend-assassinating bullets to the 5 of Williams. The thing is that a number of Williams’s postulates ARE WRONG and thus loss- inflictive. These can be and should be subject to removal.

CONCLUSION: I guess, it’s understandable by now, that script-writing has turned to be business for scholars, incorporating additional advertising and additional charges for their students. However, the above is not worth millions Forex losers sacrifice.

Much more respect-triggering is Warren Buffet, having made a minimum of USD40 bn at the stock market without writing any books on his trading tactics. W. Buffet is the world’s second-rich man after Bill Gates, although this fact being thoroughly doubtable. B. Gates is supposed to declare the whole of his income obtainable from the Microsoft Corporation, whereas W. Buffet, being a trader, is sure to deem himself entitled to show the Inland Revenue what he really wants to.

The difference is fairly evident. The profit obtained from US companies, constituting the Gates official fortune major portion, may be kept track of, as well as the offshore profits may sometimes be properly checked. But Buffet’s profits attractable at all. Do You expect a man, lending his own daughter a sum of USD20 against a receipt, to allow ALL of his profits to be taxable by state? Or a moderate portion of profits is sufficient, yeah? It is entirely his job, whereas we are to learn to gain at least a spoonful of what he has acquired during 40 years of his activity at the stock exchange.

Thus, to cut it short: a classical Forex literature exhibits but an anti-scientific unsystematic nature, constituting a “crise de genre” and triggering losses among 90% of beginners, abandoning Forex market.

In what does science differ from a philistine and amateur effort? In a systematic and objective nature, in a methodology perspective. In there any of the above to be found with scholar literature on Forex? No, but instead there is in abundance:

A. Tautology and absence of new approaches. From book to book world-distinguished scholars feed traders (as if the latter were silly little chaps) with stories about R&S levels importance, technical indicators, continuation and reversal patterns, etc., which is as interesting and instructive for a professional trader as ABC reading is for a professor of philology.

B. Absence of integrity. Individually, it is all clear: Elliot waves, Fibonacci levels, resistance levels, reversal patterns, etc. But what’s the way it all is interconnected and integrated? In what way it is influential over each other? What is primary and what is secondary? Imagine a doctor diagnoses and cures patients without a slightest idea of interaction of digestive, cardio-vascular and other systems.

This is what exactly happens to Forex beginners. They are sure to have learnt something, but they are being muddleheaded instead of having a systematic knowledge. Medical students undergo a course of anatomy. Geologists and military men make use of topographic maps. And what do Forex beginners have to this end? You are free to interrogate any scientist if he has knowledge of parts of science without having knowledge of the whole. Guess, what he’s gonna answer? And now give consideration to what is being currently published on Forex and being accessible to anyone. Thereafter You will easily “evaluate” the “outstanding contribution” made by each of Forex scholars.

4. Methodology and techniques subjectivism and absence of objectivity. See live scholar, Th. Demark’s “Technical Analysis As An Emerging Science” recommending to manually draw R&S lines from the right to the left instead of so previously doing from the left to the right. The book’s preface qualifies it to be “refined techniques built during a quarter of a century of a laborious scrutiny of market tendencies and projecting methods”. And thereinafter: “Demark’s empiric-data strictly scientific approaches are in striking difference from an artistic intuitive one thus constituting a rational basis for dynamic systems, mechanically outputting market signals.” But, with having not disclosed his system’s essence, is Demark aware that his subjective Forex trading suggestions may happen to entail severe mistakes. Yeah, he substantiates his viewpoint in chapter “Why price projections may not go into effect”: “…due to no technique being perfect”. Good a science with “no technique being perfect”!

Demark is looking rather a philosopher, than a trader with his tirade being nothing but a sophism, made use of as back as in ancient Greece to provide grounds and protection for any kind of absurd.

In accordance to Demark, “a mistake becomes obvious the next day as soon, as the first deal price is registered”. I am itching to ask the scholar: “How many points may a currency travel in a wrong direction during an earth day?” I am answering myself: 100 pts or 200 pts or more. Demark diagnoses: “This instance evidences a breach, indicative of a new opposite tendency”. Well, I’ve got it.

Once there is loss, one should loss-close and enter oppositely.

Take a look at the picture below:

Fig.10. EURUSD H1 chart as of March, 22 – April, 18, 2005 manifesting a month-long flat. (See Note below)

How many days should one per-Demark loss-close with the rate repeatedly swiveling as though to Demark’s ill luck? The scholar has to be asked, how large should a trader’s deposit be to survive Demark’s experiments, being ranked “refined techniques” and “strictly scientific approaches”, “cardinally different from others’ “, less scientific ones, as I can guess.

The opus author will again fall soothing upon You: “One oughtn’t to expect herein outlined technical methods and indicators to offer profits and not to entail losses. Forex trading involves both: a profit opportunity and a loss risk. Preceding results are in no way guarantor of perspective success”. Further on, with greater cynicism and hypocrisy: “Should You be seeking a trading panacea, put this book aside: it’s in no way helpful to You”. Well, what’s the use of buying the book at such price?

Demark, by the way, gives the interpretation of his book’s objective to be “fuelling readers with methodology, encouraging one to systematize various TA techniques”. Great! I thought, it were a new discovery of Forex regularities to be delivered to traders. But it looks, like the scholar has plunged himself into systematizing earlier 50%-correct discoveries without taking any pertinent responsibility.

Hence, no avail to purchase the book and to litter one’s brain therewith, since Forex rates enjoy 50/50 up-down travel chance, even under the probability theory.

Thus, not too much understandable, where Demark’s scientific approach manifestation is to be searched, whereas the essence of things is incomprehensible once the reversal results come evident after an earth day only with no reference to his book.

John G. Murphy, another Forex scholar, outlines in the preface, that the “less art – more science” slogan is specially topical now that greater entities begin taking interest in this area.

As to myself, I have truly appreciated the preface writer Murphy joke as being filled with subtleness and tristesse.

Now, pertaining to science-to-practice correlation and theoretical conclusions implementation… How many scholars of those hundreds referred hereto resort to live examples while teaching long and short entries and close ups thereof? Very few of them:

- B. Williams “Trading Chaos”, “New aspects of Exchange Trading”;

- J. Murphy “TA of Futures Markets”

- S. Nisson “Japanese candlesticks. Financial markets graphic analysis”

- A. Elder “Basics of Exchange Trading”

- L. Williams. “Long-Term Secrets of Short Term Trade”

- Ch. Lebo, D. Lukas “Computer Analysis of Futures Markets”

- D. Swagger “TA, Comprehensive Course”
… and hardly few more.

Disappointing enough, but it is fairly lucid why 90% of beginners mutate into failures and abandon Forex.

By way of getting familiar with the SYSTEM, one will suddenly realize how smooth are Forex artifacts to get apparent one from another, e.g.: M5 Elliott waves constituting M15 wave I, this wave being but H1 and H4 corrective within certain Fibonacci levels.

One gets clear vision of what all the Forex-traded currencies are doing now and what they are going to in half a day. Williams did have grounds to claim, he needs several tens of minutes to analyze tens of charts. He DID have understood Forex as a system, though he has offered but the system components portrayal in his books. Depending on where utilized, the Alligator may appear to be responsible either for a profit or for a loss. But Williams has not even taken pains to present a differentiation between the Alligator being a profit assistant and the Alligator being a loss bringer.

The above is conditioned by the Williams Alligator being a great TA tool, but pertaining to a certain AREA OF Forex only. Other areas require other TA facilities. I will do my best to teach You to effect proper estimation of long-term and super short-term entries being appropriate for the moment.

I will also dwell on why it is not difficult to add extra 11 trend-killing bullets to the 5 of Williams’s; why it is easy to build up a currency travel vector daily projection. The whole thing is minimized to several criteria, being constantly effective irrespective of currency intentions. As a result, You will not have to monthly pay quacking mountebanks’ impotent daily forecasts.

But now let’s move on with Forex scientific criteria. Stagnation and dogmatism are alternative attributes of Forex folios’ anti-scientific substance. Have You ever come across a criticism of any Forex-oriented theory? I mean a weighed objective criticism, assigning credits to the author for elaborating a revolutionary theory, which has by now got obsolete due to a number of objective reasons and thus requires improvement, i.e. replacement.

For instance, I have found nothing of the kind in relation to the 100-year old Dow theory, originally incorporative of benign principles. But life goes on, and there seems no reason to head-hammer life-rectified Dow’s postulates:

- a long-term trend (primary, basic as per Dow) being several years long. Curious enough to spot a currency pair to stand open for so a long period;

- a medium-term trend (intermediate tendency) being several months long. As per Dow, the MTT is opposite (corrective) to the basic trend;

- a short-term trend, not exceeding 3 weeks and incarnating minor fluctuations within the intermediate tendency;

- intraday trend being per-Dow midget ripples, not worth paying attention to.

You are now welcome to take a close look at the figures below, as of October, 2004 through March, 2005.

Fig.11. EURUSD D1 chart. (See Note below)

Fig.12. GBPUSD D1 chart. (See Note below)

CONCLUSION: This theory of Dow’s might be deemed effective rather till late 80s, than presently.

Nowadays, with 3 pips spread, 50-200 pips pullbacks and trends not exceeding a week, the Dow theory

MUST BE recognized as being despairingly obsolete and trader-hostile, since, under a 3-pip spread, it is, certainly, top of recklessness and stupidity to stand open for months or years. A different trend classification is to be called for, meeting updated Forex environment standards.

I guess there’s no need to continue being proponent of the fact that presently Forex theories are obsolete in their majority, with this sort of methodology being requisite for analysts rather than for traders. As opposed, I hold it more appropriate to forward my entry and exit technique to traders willing to conduct successful and loss-safe trading.

By way of prompting: please, attempt to view Forex as a system inclusive of components being familiar to You: Elliott waves, reversal patterns, Fibonacci levels, MAs, ally currencies, etc. All the above staff is integrally intercommunicative rather than existing individually, the way, each organ is in the human body.

I DID have understood it, and I realized the way B. Williams is able to analyze tens of currencies within tens of minutes in order to execute correct long and short entries.

It may look surprising to someone, but a qualified doctor is capable to diagnose Your body hazards after a short examination and talking to You. The doctor has actually examined but several organs, but his knowledge system has empowered him to jump at wider conclusions, as Williams at Forex.

GROSS TOTAL. Steady and regular Forex profits are real opportunity. There is hardly another area which enables one to knock up a fortune without having rich aged relatives abroad, without having to join one’s native country’s throughout corruptible authorities or else. If You have discovered THAT ANOTHER area, You are free to get engaged therein. Then, Forex is not likely to be requisite.

Note:

Full text of this article and pictures of examples http://www.masterforex-v.su/

If you wish to be trained on Trading System Masterforex-V – one of new and most effective techniques of trade on Forex in the world visit http://www.masterforex-v.su/

Author: Vyacheslav Vasilevich
Article Source: EzineArticles.com
Provided by: Beading Necklace

Forex Secrets – Delusion No1 – Forex Currency Rate And Economic Factors Impact On Exchange Rate

The delusion conceptually propounds that intraweek and intraday FOREX currency quotes movement is governed by either improvement or by deterioration of the states economic situation. But in reality, even in case the actual Forex news is superior to the estimated one, the FOREX quotes up/down movement is of 50/50 probability.

This statement is thoroughly important. Once the job of Forex trader is gambling on FOREX exchange rates differential (FOREX pairs up/down movement), the following is to be realized to obtain faultless profit:

FOREX pairs pricing mechanism (say at point X where you are completing the market analysis)
Factors imparting growth/decline to FOREX rates (up/down from point X).
Thus, having understood the FOREX rates factors effective at the extra-exchange (book-maker) FOREX market and the given currency motive factors, a trader must possess distinct knowledge of whether to buy or to sell the given currency pair.

So, what are these factors?

FOREX student suggest unambiguous interpretation of factors responsible for the price formation and the fluctuations there of:

Forex rate constitutes a demand-supply balance for a given goods (currency).
Any violation of this balance, (for instance, in case where the estimated news is in disagreement with the issued official one), results in the FOREX rates reciprocation in chase of a new demand-supply balance. Poor demand brings about decline in a certain currency rate, with a high demand leading to the growth of the latter. The situation continues as long as the currency buy/sell demand comes to balance at another level or at another point.
Referring to the B. Williams (Trading Chaos 2 Chapter 1 The market is what you are thinking of it):

Each world market is dedicated to distribute or share limited amount of something among those desirous to obtain it most of all. The market affects it by way of finding out and identifying the exact price? Underlying the buyer/sellers power absolute equilibrium point.

The above point is readily established by stock, futures, bonds, FOREX and options markets, be it either via an open auction or by virtue of a computerized facility. Markets spot this point prior to any misbalance being detectable by you or by me or even by traders at the exchange floor.

With this scenario holding true and it really does we are in position to jump at certain simple yet important conclusions as regards the information being circulated through the market and enjoying doubtless acceptance.

Thomas Demark was more laconic in Technical analysis – an emerging science:

Price movement is governed by demand and supply. Should demand exceed supply, theres a price rally and if visa versa, theres a price decline. All economists do share these underlying principles.

Hence, the role of fundamental analysis for FOREX market is readily apparent.

In scholar fiction one will discover roughly the following explanation, persistently wandering from book to book, from site to site and suggesting attaining successful trading at FOREX market by way of scrutinizing the countrys economic fundamental data, viz. by tracking the factors reflective of the countrys economy condition as below:

State economy condition dynamics indicators (GDP, trade & payments balance, current account, industrial production, etc. It is knowledge, that the higher the above indicators the faster the economic and the currency price growth);

Stock indices, via average arithmetic index of the countrys securities market condition and dynamics. E.g.: 0.3% daily DJI growth in the USA means that this certain day the shares of 30 leading US companies, being pictured by DJU, went 0.3% more expensive. By similarity, DAX30 is the major German index, incorporating the price of shares of the countrys 30 leading companies.

The countrys interest rate, since the higher the rate, the greater number of investors is eager to invest into the countrys economy and hence into national currency strength.

Rate of inflation (the higher the rate, the quicker the National Bank will hike the interest rate). With this assumption, the CPI constitutes a key factor.

Money supply growth in domestic market, which fact brings about the inflation, leading to the interest rate hike.

The countrys gold and currency reserve assets.

Variation dynamics correlation of: balances of payment, trade balance, state budget, gross domestic product (GDP), etc.

Trade and industry dynamics (industrial production, industrial orders, DGO, capacity utilization, retail sales, etc.)

Construction statistics (construction spending, new home sales, housing under construction, building permits, etc.)

Labor statistics (unemployment rate, new jobs, etc.)
Society investigations (consumer confidence, consumer sentiment, purchase managers and service managers sentiment, etc.)

To be considered additionally are the countrys political stability and tranquility (clearly, any political, natural and other cataclysms are sure to turn investors nervous making them withdraw the investments from the country, thus weakening its national currency). And with the currency being the national economy derivative, changes in economic data will inevitably result in the above currency rate movement.
Conclusions:

Progress in economy results in the currency exchange rate rally.

Decrease in economic indicators leads to the national currency rate decline.
To sum it up, critical economic and political news (whose calendar is issued in advance and is familiar to any trader) constitute a standing factor giving rise to misbalance and causing the currency rate fluctuations.

In anticipation of important economic and political news FOREX pair crawl to the rates as inspired by the estimates (rumored trade), whereas upon actual news there occurs a pulse motion of FOREX pairs in accordance with the scheme below;

Forex rate grows if actual news are better than the estimated one;
Forex rate declines if actual news are worse than the estimated one.
ARE YOU FAMILIAR WITH THESE ABC BASICS OF STUDYING FOREX?

Do you accept that one can earn money by way of using these basics, known to every trader?

Then why, having absorbed these economic axioms, 90% of Forex traders in the world are losers rather than winners.

Where is the delusion of the above ABC truth, nudging traders towards losses? Let us perform sort of point-by-point analysis.

The currency exchange FOREX market is a book-makers one. It is gambling on rates difference without direct money delivery to the exchange market, except for hedging of traders funds by Forex brokers, via buy-sell difference especially during strong trends). Then, http://www.forexite.com reads: Trading is performed without actual currencies supply, which fact cuts overheads and enables Forexite to go long and short on the currency http://www.forexite.com/forexite_advantages/forex_advantages.html.

Comment: Have you ever met any book-makers;

- whose logics was coincident with that of THEIR clients (traders),

- whose stakes were being made in accordance with THEIR technical analysts forecasts, economic laws and common sense?

And what extent of doubt and skepticism should be attached to THEIR free recommendations, advice, surveys and forecasts, laid out at THEIR sites through THEIR analysts?

As a regular result, over 90% of the world traders are still loosing their deposits at FOREX each time they follow Thomas Demark stereotype that All the economists share these underlying principles.

Comment No.1. In as much as the above underlying principles are 90% contradictory to practice, it gives rise to the following question. Might these underlying principles, shared by all economists including Thomas Demark have possibly turned into dogma, alien to life and practice?

Comment No.2. What should a trader lean on: practice or dogma even if supported by great names, provided that the trader is purported at earning money?

FOREX analysts issuing their daily bulky market reviews are not FOREX traders in the overwhelming majority (see detailed discussion below). And on bringing together pairs 1, 2 and 3 there appears certain regularity.

Please, think over A. Elder words, that: FOREX rates and the fundamental analysis are tied together with a mile-long rope. The fundamental analysis is ultimately decisive. But anything is likely to happen prior to this eventuality. Another, yet no less renowned trader and analyst, Bill Williams underlines the same mental regularity of an experienced professional trader (level 3 of his traders skill rating as per Trading Chaos 2): On attaining level 3 you emerge as a self-provided pro trader. You are always familiar with the markets basic, usually invisible structure. You no longer need to refer to others opinions. You neednt read Wall Street Journal, watch market-oriented TV programs, and subscribe to information bulletins, waste money on information channels.

Comment: Logically, there is a counter-implication, that if You are eager to become a successful trader, You are to restrict the influence of various surveys and recommendations on yourself even in case they originate from the world famous Wall Street Journal, to say nothing of crude gurus in analyst skins who use to know ahead of time where currencies will go.

Forex news is a scheduled issue of fundamental data, which as a rule impairs FOREX rates a sharp pulse of motion. But then, why the currency rates movement vector is only 50% coincident with the ABC truism logics as to where the rate should rush in case of actual news being much better or worse than the estimate. And, please, make an attempt to answer the following question, stirring for every trader: why with the new being worse than expected (say, on US economy), the USD currency would initially fall by 40 pips (news work-off) but in 5 to 10 minutes it would swivel back and would display a 200-point rally, with no account to either the issued news or to common sense.

Below are some examples:

Fig. 1. GBPUSD chart as of April 1, 2005 after the news, positive for the GBP and negative for the US economy.
See Note below

In March the CIPS manufacturing index amounted to 52.0 (with the previous data revised from 51.8 to 51.6). Oil price in NYC has grown by USD 2.40 up to USD57.70 per bbl (new record of the latest 21 years). Non-farm payrolls in the USA was minimum since last July (previous data revised towards lower values). There has been a decline in the Michigan sentiment index to 92.6 (median estimate was 92.9, with 92.9 previously).

All the US indices faced a fall down. DJI at NYSE has fallen by 99.46 pips (-0.95%) towards closing at 10404.30. NASDAQ declined by 14.42 pips (-0.72%) to 1984.81. S&P500 slipped by 7.67 pips (-0.65%) to 1172.92. 30-yr US Bonds yielded 4.729 (0.037 lower as compared to the previous close). By contrary, FTSE100 has grown by 19.60 pips (+0.40%) to 4914.00.

Now, the question is to certified economists: what will happen to the GBPUSD within one day or even several hours upon publication of these data? You are right, USD should not simply fall down, it should collapse. Powerfully, swiftly. Well, well

And this time, the same question to experienced traders. By FOREX news headlines You might have guessed that the events are taking place at the Friday American session. Correct. Initially, anyway, the GBPUSD chart will go up by 100 pips (news wok-off), followed by a pullback. Then Forex chart starts a new rally.

It is now to be tracked whether the GBP will breach the latest rally high or not. If affirmative, it will rush up by approximately 160 pips (Elliott wave 1 was 100 pips, while EW 3 is 60% longer). But if the high is not breached? The GBP currency quote will in no way come to a standstill, moreover on Friday afternoon. Hence, – down, to the starting point! And, if breached, similar situation takes shape but the counting is performed in a down direction (EW1, being the same 100 pips plus 187 pips from 1.8826 to 1.8759 being EW 3).

The FOREX day trading tactics will be given scrutiny in a separate chapter. A still separate chapter will be dedicated to Friday trade at American session due to its inherent specifics and to strong seemingly inappropriate movement. The movement is, of course, appropriate. To say nothing of Friday. But it will be touched upon later.

Now, getting back to the currency chart. As apparent, the GBPUSD pair movement on Friday, April, 01, 2005 is in no way in conjunction with the US economy fundamental data. Each forex trader can provide from tens to hundreds of similar instances, where the news are of a certain vector, whereas, after a fraudulent rush along the news vector, a currency applies reverse thrust.

Thereafter, the next day, in daily currency surveys, certified economists are sure to explain all to us by way of inventing another undisguised nonsense, like: in spite of certain data, traders decided that the currency has already worked-off this side. But! How could this occur on Apr, 01, 2005, provided that the currency has been staying flat in a narrow range in the course of the whole of the European session?

Otherwise, another explanation may emerge, that forex traders were expecting still more inferior news on the US economy But! By how much more inferior, if according to DJ, the US non-farm payrolls MA was equivalent to 180K, with actual being +110K, estimate being +225K and prior being +243K? And in what manner do these economists count up world traders: by capita, by countries or by the funds, lost by those, who continued staying long in a holy belief in renowned academic scholars postulate of FOREX rates being tied up to countries economy statistics.

I wonder if Ill ever chance to witness legal procedures to be instituted against any of those famous scholars, so that no one would dare claim that fundamental data trigger rate spikes.

The same pertains to economists, writing about the way, hundreds of thousands traders throughout the globe have conspired to conclude that it is time to reverse the trends with absolutely no grounds. Is it really feasible?

Such reading-matter is, but hammering a single question into ones head: is it lie or is it stupidity of those cooking daily reports for taking traders for a ride, fooling them up and keeping them from the truth, which might be of great avail to them in daily trading. Traders are not a decisive factor, thus rates movement is in no way dependent on their will. Practically in no way.

Wanna check? Negotiate with tens of traders of the trading floor and arrange for a simultaneous entry long on some exotic FOREX pair. In so doing, try to push up either the NZDHKD, or the NZDCAD, or the HKDCAD. No need? I think so. Youll certainly suffer failure with the above, to say nothing of the EUR, GBP, CHF.

Another example:

Fig.2. GBPUSD movement as of May 13, 2005.

See Note below

This is an M15 chart of the American session, where the USD pair has grown by over 100 pips from 1.8583 to 1.8481 against the news, negative for the US economy:

Most indices have dropped down: DJI at NYSE by 49.36 pips (-0.48%) to close at 10140.12; S&P500 by 5.31 pips (-0.46%) to 1154.05. NASDAQ has grown by 12.92 pips (+0.66%) to1976.80. 30yr US Bonds yielded 4.484 (0.047 drop from previous close)

There is a fall in Michigan sentiment index. In May UMich was 85.3 with med est 90.0 and prior 87.7. So it was worse than the estimate, reaching the low since March, 2003. The index decline was being observed for the fifth month.

The April US export price index was +0.6% with prior of +0.7%.

Below are other similar examples of that same day.

Fig. 3. EURUSD chart as of May 13, 2005.

See Note below

Hundreds of examples may be offered, where the Forex news vector is opposite to that of the currency movement. Practically, actual news may happen to be superior or inferior to the estimate. FOREX quotes up/down movement is also of 50/50 probability irrespective of the above.

Why does it happen and what is the way for a trader to pinpoint entries and exits? This is going to be discussed in ensuing chapters of this book.

Note:

Full text of this article and pictures of examples http://www.masterforex-v.su/

If you wish to be trained on Trading System Masterforex-V – one of new and most effective techniques of trade on Forex in the world visit http://www.masterforex-v.su/

Author: Vyacheslav Vasilevich
Article Source: EzineArticles.com
Provided by: Credit card currency-exchange fees

Learning to Trade Forex in Seven Steps

If you are interested in learning to trade forex successfully, then the most common path for an aspiring trader these days is to search the Internet for information to apply immediately to their live forex trading account. The problem is that their search often leads them to destinations where there are plenty of false promises, bad ideas, negativity and an obsession with indicators. Many of the EBooks on sale today are filled with recycled concepts or incomplete strategies which the authors themselves do not use. Many authors do not earn money from forex trading but they earn their living by selling these EBooks to the novice forex trader.

This easy access to forex guru’s who fuel the idea that forex trading is the holy grail of easy money, then financially feed off those same people they have sold this idea to. At the end of the day what many of these forex guru’s sell is a gross misrepresentation of what it takes to trade forex for a living.

Forex Trading is not easy. You can become a good forex trader though dedication and by treating forex trading as you would any other skill. The reality is that it is hard work and must be treated with the same amount of seriousness as you would any other career.

The effect of all these gurus is that many forex traders start off overly optimistic with unrealistic goals. Whilst there is nothing wrong with a positive mental attitude but this positivity must be built on strong foundations and realistic expectations.

New forex traders normally start their career by purchasing some secret set of indicators and they are quickly punished for their naivety. Many of these forex traders then purchase a different set of secret indicators until they become disillusioned and then quit trading.

In fact, many forex traders that are now successful went through this learning process, including myself. This is only a problem if you refuse to learn from your mistakes. You need to break from this cycle of reliance on secret indicators and guru methods to be successful.

You help yourself in the beginning; by learning to think for yourself and understanding that whilst anyone can trade forex, to be successful, you must learn to BE a forex trader.

To BE A Forex Trader

To trade forex is easy, all you need is a forex trading account with money in it and then you enter the foreign exchange market and start trading.

To be a forex trader is more work. You need to grow from the starting point of having very little knowledge to the stage where you have a trading plan, understand the concepts and behaviour of the forex market and be able to trade with a cool head and understand that wins and losses are all part of being a Forex Trader.

Learning How to Trade Forex by thinking like a Forex Trader in Seven Steps.

1. Understand your place in the Forex Market

This is very important you must understand that you are very small fish in a big ocean.

In the Foreign Exchange Market the majority of the liquidity is coming from big banks and experienced institutional traders. These are the big fish. The big fish will happily enjoy you as a little snack.

You are only fooling yourself if you think it will be easy to take money off these big forex traders.

You have to learn to swim alongside these big fish and catch the same currents they do. Swimming against them just marks you as prey and sooner or later you will be eaten.

2. Learn to read the Forex Charts and Understand the Foreign Exchange Market.

Many novice forex traders believe that these big forex traders have access to some secret forex trading strategy or use a secret set of indicators, but the truth is this is just not the case.

These major forex players are using simple, but proven technical analysis techniques – most commonly horizontal support/resistance, identification of trading ranges, Fibonacci these are then coupled with fundamental themes.

Begin by accepting that the other major participants are highly experienced in the market and they make money because of experience and by a complete understanding of the core skills and not because they hold a holy grail of secret indicators.

3. Money Management

It is crucial that you understand as a novice forex trader the emphasis is not on how much you can make from forex trading but on how you manage what you have.

This is the most common downfall of all novice traders. It is common place to see a starting trader risk the majority of their account on one or two positions.

This style of trading is not sustainable and professional traders do not trade in this manner. Everyone sometime in their career will have a string of bad trades. A typical number might be 10 losing trades in a row. The question is do you have a money management plan in place that enables you to survive this?

4. Focus on the Market

Many novice forex traders open their forex charting software and activate their latest hot indicator or tool and proceed to place their trades as per the tools recommendations. This style of forex trading is unlikely to have much long term success.

When these indicators fail to generate the required profits then these traders then move rapidly on to another set of indicators.

You must focus on the forex market and understand what the indicators are telling you so that you can pick the forex trades which have the best probability of being winners.

Successful forex traders use indicators and tools as Fibonacci, Pivot points, price channels, MACD, RSI etc. These tools by themselves do not make a successful trader. There are many successful traders and unsuccessful traders who use the exact same indicators.

The key is that successful traders understands how the market behaves around the indicators and understands what the signals actually mean.

The best way to achieve this is to stop swapping between tools and select those that compliment your trading plan, understand how they work, and then spend time in the market experiencing them.

5. Plan your trade and trade your plan.

This is a common saying that seems to get lost on novice traders. It should be every trader’s goal to make pips on each forex trade as per their trading plan. Forex Traders must treat each trade as a business decision by calculating their risk and defining their entries and exits points, those that do not open themselves to big losses when a trade goes bad.

Many novice traders seem to lack the discipline to follow a plan for each trade. So what happens is typically the following; a novice trader will see a potential set-up, they decide on some arbitrary sum to buy or sell with a quick guesstimate, then place the trade without analyzing any risk and having an exit strategy.

Of course this way of trading can be profitable over the short term, more down to luck than skill. But eventually the luck runs out and the trader is caught napping and a common result is a wiped out account.

The first question novice traders tend to ask themselves how much will I make on this forex trade?
The first question experience traders tend to ask themselves is how much is my potential loss / risk?

6. Your mind is your strongest asset and weakest link.

Entire books have been dedicated to the subject of psychology and its role in trading. That doesn’t mean they are all going to help you, but you should take this as a sign that the subject is not to be ignored.

First you must understand the role psychology plays in trading. You must learn to understand your personality traits and how they might affect your trading style.

A trader I know is a bad loser and when he has a bad trade, he had a habit of going straight back and trying to win those pips back with even worse results. But he understands this as a weakness and when he has a bad trade, he takes a break of 20 minutes before he goes back to trading so that his emotions do not affect his trading decisions.

Second you must make it your aim to never stop learning. You cannot get yourself to a certain level and then become complacent. Every day is a learning experience in some way or other and you must be prepared to learn lessons and invest time in improving your skills and experience. The day you stop learning is the day you should stop trading.

7. Understand The Forex Market is always right or Expect the Unexpected.

The forex market is an interesting place, but there is one thing every trader needs to learn. Always expect the unexpected and do not get wrapped up in past successes. No matter what your charts or indicators tell you; sometimes the forex market will just do the opposite.

Whatever happens in the market you must maintain an objective outlook on your strategy and the forex market and ensure that bubbles and crashes do not derail you in the long term.

By following these steps and learning to become a forex trader rather than just trading the forex market, you will put you on the path to ultimate success as a profitable forex trader. This is something that 90% of all novice traders fail to achieve.

Author: Adrian Faiers
Article Source: EzineArticles.com
Provided by: Wordpress plugin expert

Forex Broker Trading Rebates

Most investors who trade Forex use a broker. A broker is an individual or a company, who buys and sells lots of currency according to the trader’s wishes. Brokers earn money by collecting commissions or fees for their services. Many of the Forex Brokers available today do not charge any fees or commissions. Most of our clients do not understand how a Forex Broker can stay in business and not charge any fees or commissions. Brokers do there very best to spin this fact into a positive for their particular firm, but most Forex Traders know the facts. The fact is that Forex Brokers make a significant amount of revenue from the spread in each Forex trading pair that the client trades. For instance, when a client of these Forex Brokers buy the EUR/USD, the spread is usually 2-3 pips. The cash equivalent of 2-3 pip spread in a standard account is $20-30 per standard lot currency trade. This amount is what the Forex Broker earns for every trade that their clients take. As you can see, the Forex Broker is getting paid rather handsomely to conduct the business of buying a selling currencies. We feel that some of those enormous profits that the Forex Broker can and should be distributed to the Forex or Currency Trader.

You should check that a broker is registered and or regulated in the place they conduct Forex Trading services. A Forex broker also needs to be associated with a financial institution, such as a bank in order to provide funds for margin trading. Picking the right Forex broker for you will take some work on your part. There are Forex Brokers who do not charge a trading commission and some that charge commission. It may be a good idea to talk with friends and business associates about their Forex brokers. You may get some good leads, and you’re certain to hear who to stay away from. There is nothing like word of mouth advertising. I have conducted numerous interviews and conversations with leading Forex Brokers, and the most important question you can ask them is always the same, I will explain. I realize you are in the market to make money and so am I. I really want to do my Forex Trading with your firm but I want to be discounted on my trading volume through trade rebates. This type of question for the Forex Broker will reveal two very important things to them. First, they will know that you have done your homework ,and the Forex Broker will know that requesting a rebate is well within the right of any Forex Trader. Second, the Forex Broker you are interested in will most likely not try to pull a fast one over on you, and that you are a knowledgeable Forex Market participant. This should be the first step in choosing the right Forex Broker, because if you are an active Currency Trader, you will be collecting on sizeable trading rebates every month regardless of your trading wins or losses.

If you are thinking of investing online, you could choose several online brokers and contact their help desks. Seeing how quickly they respond to your questions could be key in how they will respond to their customers needs. If you don’t get a speedy reply and a satisfactory answer to your question you certainly wouldn’t want to trust them with your business. Just be aware that as in other types of businesses, Before sign up service might be better than After sign up service. I would put your potential Forex Broker on the clock when you reach out to them. I typically would give the Forex Broker a six hour window to fully address your question by email or phone call. You must realize that even though a Forex Broker Firm calls you back in a few minutes after you send them an email or a call, that does not mean they are the best Broker Dealer available. It means they have a quick response division maybe, but that is it. The Forex Broker has not proved anything to or your interests until their promises are in writing. What I mean is that they can blow smoke at you till the sun goes down, but until they put your needs as a Currency Trader on paper, they are just words. I have found some of the lesser known Forex Brokers are the best to deal with. Remember, the more a Forex Broker Dealer advertises to have your business, the more that cost will be put into your trading spread or fees. The Forex Broker who has a good customer base and treats their army of Forex Trader right, is the choice for me. Those fancy commercials and websites the bigger Forex Brokers have are nice to look at but that is where my interest in them end.

Before you choose an online broker get a copy of their online demo account. What features are included? Is the software reliable? Does it offer automatic trading? Are there extra software features that cost more? I think a FREE demo account is essential for a quality Forex Broker to have and practice on, but they can cause a problem when it comes to live Forex Trading. When it comes to trading in the Forex Market, the Forex Demo account does not take into account the biggest problem a Forex Trader faces, that is emotion. It is great to put on a position in a Demo account that makes and losses incredible amounts of money. What if it was real money that was being won and lost in real time? What if you freeze up when trading your account and start hoping a bad trade back to profitability? these are just some of the many questions that eventually must be considered. I think a Forex Trading Demo Account is a good thing for very new Forex Trader, but be careful not too get to comfortable with trading it. The difference in trading a demo account and a live Forex account is huge.

Before setting up an account with a Forex broker you will need to do further investigation. How quickly will these brokers execute your buy/sell orders? What is their policy on slippage? What are the transaction fees? What is the spread, fixed or variable? What are the margin requirements and how are they calculated? Does the margin change with currency traded? Is it the same for mini accounts and standard accounts? All these fundamental questions should be investigated, and most of the quality Forex Broker present the answers to these questions right on their websites to view. The most important issue, in my opinion, is the Forex Trading Rebate that a Forex Trader should be receiving.

Don’t forget to be prepared to be able to offer the Forex Broker information about your trading volume. If you are trading your own system or trading an Expert Advisor, it is in your best interest to give your Forex Broker an idea of your monthly trading volume. This information that you provide your Broker will help them offer you the best Forex Trading Rebate possible.

by Jimmy Mack (Fx Trade Rebate)

Author: Jimmy Mack
Article Source: EzineArticles.com
Provided by: Electric Pressure Cooker

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