Forex Secrets – Delusion Number 2 – Who Prompts Forex Quotation to Traders?

The delusion conceptually propounds that traders operate at a spontaneous FOREX market (as stipulated by B. Williams, A. Elder, E. Nayman, etc.). But it is not the case. Traders do their job inside a well-organized and controlled currency exchange market, governed by the Consortium of the world’s largest banks.

Hence, who is pushing the currencies up and down, who defines trends, corrective actions and flats?

And, who, ultimately, places a trend at a point, where the majority of traders are happy to think they have saddled the wave and are about to win an enormous profit! Now! Not to be scared! Not to close the position! Not to be satisfied with a minor profit! Later on we will discuss that sort of stupidity. Thus, one persists to continue long in spite of more and more degrading profit. Shortly, the loss starts growing with light velocity! Are you familiar with the situation?

Well, who has reversed the rate?

And who generally tugs currency rates?

Tugging is surely centralized. Compare on-line quotes of several Dealers or banks to find out that they are per second coincident. Do each bank’s traders act in such synchronism, that even not seeing each other, they place identical orders so that quotation is in 100% agreement? NOTHING IS A MIRACLE HERE!

But prior to further explanation, we will listen to Bill Williams, the FOREX scholar (Trading Chaos, Ch. 6): “…let us trace a trend formation process. Earlier, the market and the market trading venue did constitute a single physical space. Majority of large grain traders were concentrated on the “floor”. Their orders involved amounts, sufficient to move the market; they enjoyed better control over the market than at present. During the latest 20 years markets have grown worldwide. Now, not only “Purina Ralstone”, “Kellog” and other prominent commercial associations seek hedging their cash assets transactions. So do millions of the world’s minor profiteers and farmers, competing with them in anticipation of perspective grain price fluctuations? This fact also implies strong potential for traders with nowadays, trends not being constructed on the floor. The latter mainly ensures the market liquidity by way of tackling “outer orders”.

The fact, that today’s trends are formed rather “outside the floor” than “on the floor”, as before, enables one to trace further market tendencies with trade volume being the key thereto. Our only on-line information is restricted to tick volume, time and price. Tick volume constitutes a number of price changes per a certain time period. It is not at all a number of traded contracts. Multiple researches revealed no significant difference between actual and tick volume. Using a tick volume, we may suppose, that it represents actual volume. It is a real-time volume, thus being our key to what’s going on in “trading pits”.

Two basic elements are organic to FOREX trading: brokers on the floor and remote traders. Local brokers constitute staff, executing orders, thus earning their salaries and/or commissions. They don’t possess money to be at their disposal. They are order executors. Their prospects are not burdened by prices, they getting for the orders management.

Remote traders use their own money. They have to pay the price out of their own pockets, unless they are getting a good one. Traders have to be much superior in skill to brokers since they independently take their own decisions, while the broker’s job is to follow the others’ orders.

Remote traders are supposed to support the market by way of taking its opposite side. As a rule, they are not at all crazy about any long-term transactions. Quite a few remote traders have been participants to our private training programs, and it is to be admitted that a 10-minute long transaction may seem quite a long-term one for some of them.

Think back to the fact that trends are built up of orders, delivered to the floor from outside, but not of long-term positions entered by remote traders. Since the traders’ job is to take the side opposite to the orders arriving from outside, they have no prospects of trading in between themselves. They follow your money. We are emphasizing again, that tick volume is our key to understanding what’s going on in the Forex Market. Remote traders do not contribute any significant volume to trading, which might result from dealing with similar traders on the floor. Trends emerge from incoming orders. That is why we are to be certain about when and in what amount the outer order is supplied to the floor. It is presented via a tick volume change”.

So, we, traders, turn out to be price locomotives, don’t we? And brokers on the floor just allocate and execute order, incoming from us, don’t they? And on April, 1, 2005 they all (meaning: we all) together decided to swivel the trend and to stay short against all the rules, news and common sense… I wonder if the scholar ashamed or not?

As regards the above quotation, I have chanced to hear a single argument in favor of Bill Williams (I guess you understood for what sake I’ve cited it in detail): it all pertains to the futures markets; we neither read nor use the above at Forex. Strange enough, these are the arguments of Williams’s advocates, but not of Williams himself.

This book is actually intended for both: futures markets and Forex Market. That’s why pictures taken from both the markets are so mixed up and the author never differentiates between the Technical Analysis methods thereof. Thus, either the author does not trace any difference between the two markets, or he is not eager to reveal it to the reader.

And neither in the foreword, nor in the remarks did Williams and his publishers refer to the fact that something of “Trading Chaos” is inapplicable to FOREX, and thus should not be made use of by a trader at FOREX.

I have repeatedly come through this peculiarity of Williams (correct specific case method definition being extended to a wider coordinates scale) and it actually induced me to write this book. In all and all, the methods and advice, absolutely true and correct for a PART of Forex Market are claimed by Williams to be universal for the WHOLE of Forex Market without being demonstrated where the above is effective and where it isn’t.

The same is being done by Williams’s opponents and advocates, who visualize the portion of Forex where his methods are operable only. As different from analysts and Williams’s bibliographers, TRADERS require much stronger to realize a demarcation with pro-Williams trading to the one side thereof and with counter-Williams trading to the other one.

Logically there comes a question: what might be added to Williams’s indicators in order to turn them effective at the point where they are presently ineffective (see details in chapter on the Williams Alligator).

And now we are getting back to the issue of who supplies traders with FOREX rates quotation, bearing in mind that it’s us, traders, who exercise rates movement in accordance with Williams’s standpoint. Millions of traders have actually been studying FOREX by virtue of the “Trading House” and it is really worth studying. This is one of the most interesting and instructive editions whose repeated reading each time brings about something new and useful.

However, in some passages it smells being custom tailored. Is Williams ignorant of the fact that there is no single FOREX exchange and there’s no single trading venue or floor? And that Pacific, Asian, European and American session classification is arbitrary?

Did You see currency rates move, while there’s a day off in the USA with the banks closed? So did I. So, who has made up his mind in the USA to trade on the floor on a day off?
Then, who prompts rates, who formulates trends and turns them with no objective reason for the rate to swivel and to rush in a direction, not being requisite at all?

Here is the answer, as provided by No. 11, 2002 “FOREX Profiteer” magazine’s article by Nadezhda Larina “Electronic Broker Systems at FOREX market”, reading: “… an FOREX dealing “Electronic Broking Service (EBS)” enjoys wide popularity with the extra-exchange inter-bank FOREX market. It has been developed by the Consortium of largest FOREX trading participant banks in association with “Quotron” informatics expert company and launched in 1993. Presently EBS incorporates 13 world’s largest market-maker banks, viz,: BN AMRO Bank, Bank of America, Barclays Capital, Citibank, Commerzbank, Credit Suisse First Boston, HSBC Bank PLC, J.P. Morgan Chase and Co.Lehman Brothers, Royal Bank of Scotland, S-E Banken, UBS AG along with Japanese Minex Corp., established by a Consortium of Japanese Banks in a joint manner with KDD Japanese telecommunications company and Dow Jones Telerate.

EBS offers a completely integrated range of dealing services for the professional inter-bank market, being a leading anonymous inter-bank FOREX trading electronic dealer. It is currently used by over 2500 dealers in 850 world banks and yields a trade turnover of about USD80 billion daily.

See there also: “Three greatest FOREX dealers – Citibank, J.P. Morgan Chase and Deutsche Bank, together with Reuters Group PLC) have started Atriax system in June, 2001.The latter terminated the operations in spring, 2002 after having failed to stand the competition.

Can you imagine a monster machine, capable of forcing three world’s largest banks – Citibank, J.P. Morgan Chase and Deutsche Bank to abandon their business plans! Or capable of reversing the EURUSD from 1.3660 to 1.1865 and thus instantaneously executing orders of all the world’s traders, going and standing short! And thus within, April-June, 2005, buying the EUR from traders at USD1.36, 1.29, 1.20, 1.19, etc.

Do you see the loss? Watching the EUR slip 1700 pts after having bought it at 1.36… But, possibly, there is no loss at all?

All of Larina’s basic provisions have actually found confirmation 2 years later in the UK “Financial Times” article by Jennifer Hughes: “A PC occupying trading floor” (see it on Financial Times 2004).

It underlines that during the precedent 2 years the Consortiums turnover has grown by extra daily USD20 billion thus currently stretching to USD100 billion, whereas the most prominent internet-based trading platforms ensure the average of USD15-20 billion daily turnover.

So, let’s jump to some conclusions:

1. The FOREX market is not the same as it used to be earlier, say 11 years ago.

2. There is in fact “a price fluctuation relative uniformity”, otherwise, practical quotations similarity with all the world’s brokers and traders.

3. The reason for the above uniformity has been honestly disclosed from technological standpoint, being the “flourish of electronic exchange technologies”.

4. There is no mention of other reasons for similar rates at absolutely different FOREX trading platforms the world over what links together the above platform and FOREX rates at them from financial, organizational, contractual viewpoints, etc).

5. The great interest is the remark from “Financial Times” reiterating the changes at FOREX during the latest years as narrated by an anonymous ex-dealer (?) who compares the FOREX market as of those 11 years ago: “It used to be a hell noisy and a hell splendid!”

In his opinion the market has lost a significant portion of its individuality with rise of technology. A very interesting phrase: “It used to be a hell splendid”. I would add:” It used to be a hell volatile”, with reference to the fact that the daily rates travel went as far 400 to 500 pips. And there’s nothing of the kind now.

6. Now, why has “The Financial Times” only interviewed the EBS Consortium official?

J. Jeffrey and the currency transactions department director, Fabian Shey Why wasn’t it desirous to interview the Reuters representatives (UK)? What’s the reason for such kind of disrespect to the compatriots?

Or were they hard to be contacted in London, where The Financial Times and Reuters HQs are located, moreover after maintaining that presently both, EBS Consortium and Reuters are dominant at the inter-bank market? Or The Financial Times possesses enough information on compatriots from Reuters to hold that the EBS Consortium official’s interview is sufficient without any Reuters?

7. Please, pay attention to the following from The Financial Times: “Anyway, other opinions are available. According to Justin Trenner, the current volume of on-line trading is turnover amounts to USD100 billion daily with the steep growth observed”. The Financial Times thus turns out to recognize its complete inability to trace not only FOREX cash flows, but even the trading volumes at those platforms.

The principal difference between stocks and FOREX is, by the way, readily apparent from the above. Those, writing about similar Fundamental and Technical Analysis methods for both the markets, are either ignorant as to fundamental difference of these markets, or they are deliberately swindling millions of traders.

When pointing out, that, besides the above Banks Consortium, there exist other electronic dealing facilities (e.g. Electronic Broker Service, Reuters Dealing 2000-2, etc.), N. Larina has overlooked their interrelations aspect. And there are a lot of questions: how and why there is coincidence of trends, corrections, historical highs and lows in the course of a single day, etc.

And what is the way to reconcile the statement on shunt operation of EBS and Reuters Dealing facilities with the information that Citibank, J.P. Morgan Chase and Deutsche Bank together with Reuters Group Plc have failed to stand the competition? Is it attributable to the fact that the Consortium has actually acquired Reuters, maintaining its formal sovereignty in order to support traders’ opinion that FOREX market is free and independent? If affirmative, then it’s fairly clear why the Consortium was not scared to buy the EUR on its dip from 1.36 to 1.1860, since there nothing to be afraid of with one’s knowledge of the point, below which one will not drop the rate as well as the point to stage the EUR rally to in several months with no one to interfere with Your so doing.

Hopefully, it’s now understandable who swivels trends at FOREX! The world’s largest banks Consortium does have power to reverse rates, whenever desirous, overthrowing fundamental laws, news releases, trends and common sense, just the way we witnessed on 01.04.2005 charts. But it’s not at all, traders, as claimed by Williams.

That’s why there is obvious ineffectiveness of the Williams’s Market Facilitation Index (MFI) based on fluctuations of traded volumes; to be more precise, sometimes the indicator tells the truth, whereas sometimes it lies in a barefaced manner.

The reasons are stated above: the banks Consortium pushes rates to where it needs, but not to where traders going into deals, thus accumulating the volumes, indicated on the screen. That’s why traders turn losers when making use of the Williams’s MFI indicator.

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Forex Secret – Forex Literature As A 90-95% Of The Traders Lose Their Deposit (Part II)

(See beginning of this article under name Forex Secret. Forex Literature As A 90-95% Of The Traders Loose Their Deposit. (Part I)

B. Williams quotes 5 bullets killing a trend, whereas I exemplify their insufficiency and I add up 11 more thereto, not denying the above 5 of them.

B. Williams idealizes the Elliott wave theory, whereas I show that the combination of fives and threes is none the idealizable, otherwise a mankind 100-year development project could have long been elaborated on the basis of Elliott waves pattern, leading to exasperation at the fact that humanity progress does not follow Elliott and Williams. The other thing is that nowadays brokers have mastered the job of manufacturing more waves out of the 5 initially.

The aforesaid is applicable to each of the 20 problems of Forex.

A portion of my live Forex trading methods are to be found in this book, while the other portion thereof is forwarded upon request. Those eager to continue training under my supervision as well as to trade live, please, feel free to contact me on my e-mail address below.
It all could be funny unless it were sad. But IT IS sad, because the above examples are scaring in number. Bearing it in mind, do, go again through excerpts from distinguished scholars books:

- Awesome Oscillator (AO) serves us keys from the Wonderland;

- Accelerator Oscillator (AC) gives us with significant superiority over other traders;

- using AO is similar to reading tomorrow’s “Wall Street Journal”, while using AC is reading of the day-after-tomorrow’s issue thereof;

- by using AO solely, one may attain profits even without any knowledge of current rate; should the oscillator turn down, one may merely ring one’s broker and say: “Sell at the market price!”.

As You have guessed, these are extracts from B. Williams’s “New aspects of Exchange Trade”. Have You read the thing? And now, please, give a glance to the a foregoing figure, depicting the way, the vaunted Williams’s indicators may entail an abyss of losses.

But what truly makes my blood boil is as follows. B. Williams is a professional psycho therapist and his narrative style is none of an incidental one. This is a suggestive method by virtue whereof he attempts to demonstrate the exclusive, correct and faultless nature of his trading technique. The “faultlessness” is to be discussed in an individual chapter, and my only claim here is that I can easily draw hundreds of examples, where one can bump into loss by way of following Williams’s indicators.

By myself, I am an advocate of theory of chaos. But this theory is disclosed by Williams in a very primitive and a superficial manner, which fact results in his blind follower losses. As to the author, he resorts to propaganda methods instead of providing a clearcut distinction between the cases, where the above theory is 100% effective and those, where it is not.
Williams could have explained to his admirers directly, that in these certain instances the theory is to be relied upon, while in these instances it is not to. The difference is in this, this and this. In the former instances one should necessarily enter, whereas in the latter instances one should abstain from entry. But the guy haven’t done the job (due to either not being desirous or to not having sufficient knowledge).

I was a success in finding out distinct operability criteria of the Williams’s technique. To achieve this, I had to improve the Alligator, by virtue whereof I enabled my students to easily pinpoint the difference between the Williams No.1 option (a trend, encouraging profits) and No.2 option (a flat, inflictive of losses).

By the by, it is supportive of the chaos theory methodological correctness and of imperfect Williams’s method structure, plotted on the basis thereof. Instead of acting upon the trader’s consciousness Williams resorts to forbidden subconscious programming procedures, thus stimulating man’s inherent and acquired instincts as if saying: “If You wanna get rich, follow me! My method empowers one to trade without a single glance at a price! The Awesome Oscillator constitutes a key from a Kingdom!” Etc., etc., etc…

Hence, only 1 of 20 Williams’s followers exhibits Forex-earning capabilities in a most favorable environment. Thus, under this statistics, B. Williams is better not to be idolized, the way he has been by the crowd of his admirers. On the other hand, other Forex maestros’ trading techniques are far worse than that of B. Williams. So, let’s continue illustrating Forex truisms being erroneous in live trading.

- The “Theory of Chaos” of B. Williams. The author has not advised what should be added up thereto. A separate chapter here is dedicated to the issue.

- Trader’s psychological problems. I haven’t found any revelations pertaining to THE WAYS OF ELIMINATING THESE PROBLEMS.

- The issue of a stop-loss order is certainly important: even under trend hedging is an indispensable protective shield against market surprise. But is the problem too far complicated to require a dozen pages’ elucidation? Has the author beheld any secret? Wah! He hasn’t noticed anything but he still has repeated all that wanders from book to book on Forex.

Once I was stunned by a question put forward by one of my students after having read B. Williams’s “Trading Chaos”: what’s the use of giving so much attention to the stop-loss problem and above all what’s the good of chewing over the role of safety cushions in the automobile industry as though readers are down with minority?

Doubtlessly, it’s funny reading that Williams has never violated traffic regulations, priding himself on the occasion. Any psychiatrist could tell a hell lot about such a personality type, although, I should admit that Williams is American, not Russian.

Drawing picturesque, memorizing examples, each scholar is right to insist on protective barrier placement as a loss killer. But there is hardly anyone to introduce certain novelty into the issue and to disclose the secret as to what there should be in the trader’s store besides a stop-loss to insure against his deposit melting and extra losses. A separate chapter here is targeted at the issue.

I have shortly come across an aphorism: “Genius is not to the effect, that nothing can be added thereto, but it is to the effect that nothing can be deleted there from”.

If You go through numerous books on Forex at this aspect angle, You are sure to surprisingly find out that 90-100% of their contents may be subject to withdrawal. WHY?
BECAUSE nothing new and 100% correct is offered therein. Instead, reiteration is going on of what is familiar to any professional, since everyone is itching to exhibit one’s originality by way of retelling: a paramount authority of FA over Forex exchange rates; continuation and reversal patterns; a stop-loss importance; a divergence being a component of a trend reversal, etc., i.e. book-to-book travelers.

“An outstanding Forex trading techniques” and “a genius scholar”, etc., making their appearance in books’ abstracts and annotations are off springs of 1% originality added up by an author to 99% of common knowledge.

Sale is publisher’s primary target, giving birth to “genius” mediocrities and plagiarism. Standing separately among these books are opuses by B. Williams, being admired and scrutinized regularly by the majority of scholars and by myself. But EVEN HE cannot be qualified as “genius” with account to the above formula. He is rather “eccentric” than “genius”.

The thing is not, that his technique is addenda-allowing (this fact backs the correct Williams’s choice of the chaos theory to be applied to Forex) and I easily managed to add 11 trend-assassinating bullets to the 5 of Williams. The thing is that a number of Williams’s postulates ARE WRONG and thus loss- inflictive. These can be and should be subject to removal.

CONCLUSION: I guess, it’s understandable by now, that script-writing has turned to be business for scholars, incorporating additional advertising and additional charges for their students. However, the above is not worth millions Forex losers sacrifice.

Much more respect-triggering is Warren Buffet, having made a minimum of USD40 bn at the stock market without writing any books on his trading tactics. W. Buffet is the world’s second-rich man after Bill Gates, although this fact being thoroughly doubtable. B. Gates is supposed to declare the whole of his income obtainable from the Microsoft Corporation, whereas W. Buffet, being a trader, is sure to deem himself entitled to show the Inland Revenue what he really wants to.

The difference is fairly evident. The profit obtained from US companies, constituting the Gates official fortune major portion, may be kept track of, as well as the offshore profits may sometimes be properly checked. But Buffet’s profits attractable at all. Do You expect a man, lending his own daughter a sum of USD20 against a receipt, to allow ALL of his profits to be taxable by state? Or a moderate portion of profits is sufficient, yeah? It is entirely his job, whereas we are to learn to gain at least a spoonful of what he has acquired during 40 years of his activity at the stock exchange.

Thus, to cut it short: a classical Forex literature exhibits but an anti-scientific unsystematic nature, constituting a “crise de genre” and triggering losses among 90% of beginners, abandoning Forex market.

In what does science differ from a philistine and amateur effort? In a systematic and objective nature, in a methodology perspective. In there any of the above to be found with scholar literature on Forex? No, but instead there is in abundance:

A. Tautology and absence of new approaches. From book to book world-distinguished scholars feed traders (as if the latter were silly little chaps) with stories about R&S levels importance, technical indicators, continuation and reversal patterns, etc., which is as interesting and instructive for a professional trader as ABC reading is for a professor of philology.

B. Absence of integrity. Individually, it is all clear: Elliot waves, Fibonacci levels, resistance levels, reversal patterns, etc. But what’s the way it all is interconnected and integrated? In what way it is influential over each other? What is primary and what is secondary? Imagine a doctor diagnoses and cures patients without a slightest idea of interaction of digestive, cardio-vascular and other systems.

This is what exactly happens to Forex beginners. They are sure to have learnt something, but they are being muddleheaded instead of having a systematic knowledge. Medical students undergo a course of anatomy. Geologists and military men make use of topographic maps. And what do Forex beginners have to this end? You are free to interrogate any scientist if he has knowledge of parts of science without having knowledge of the whole. Guess, what he’s gonna answer? And now give consideration to what is being currently published on Forex and being accessible to anyone. Thereafter You will easily “evaluate” the “outstanding contribution” made by each of Forex scholars.

4. Methodology and techniques subjectivism and absence of objectivity. See live scholar, Th. Demark’s “Technical Analysis As An Emerging Science” recommending to manually draw R&S lines from the right to the left instead of so previously doing from the left to the right. The book’s preface qualifies it to be “refined techniques built during a quarter of a century of a laborious scrutiny of market tendencies and projecting methods”. And thereinafter: “Demark’s empiric-data strictly scientific approaches are in striking difference from an artistic intuitive one thus constituting a rational basis for dynamic systems, mechanically outputting market signals.” But, with having not disclosed his system’s essence, is Demark aware that his subjective Forex trading suggestions may happen to entail severe mistakes. Yeah, he substantiates his viewpoint in chapter “Why price projections may not go into effect”: “…due to no technique being perfect”. Good a science with “no technique being perfect”!

Demark is looking rather a philosopher, than a trader with his tirade being nothing but a sophism, made use of as back as in ancient Greece to provide grounds and protection for any kind of absurd.

In accordance to Demark, “a mistake becomes obvious the next day as soon, as the first deal price is registered”. I am itching to ask the scholar: “How many points may a currency travel in a wrong direction during an earth day?” I am answering myself: 100 pts or 200 pts or more. Demark diagnoses: “This instance evidences a breach, indicative of a new opposite tendency”. Well, I’ve got it.

Once there is loss, one should loss-close and enter oppositely.

Take a look at the picture below:

Fig.10. EURUSD H1 chart as of March, 22 – April, 18, 2005 manifesting a month-long flat. (See Note below)

How many days should one per-Demark loss-close with the rate repeatedly swiveling as though to Demark’s ill luck? The scholar has to be asked, how large should a trader’s deposit be to survive Demark’s experiments, being ranked “refined techniques” and “strictly scientific approaches”, “cardinally different from others’ “, less scientific ones, as I can guess.

The opus author will again fall soothing upon You: “One oughtn’t to expect herein outlined technical methods and indicators to offer profits and not to entail losses. Forex trading involves both: a profit opportunity and a loss risk. Preceding results are in no way guarantor of perspective success”. Further on, with greater cynicism and hypocrisy: “Should You be seeking a trading panacea, put this book aside: it’s in no way helpful to You”. Well, what’s the use of buying the book at such price?

Demark, by the way, gives the interpretation of his book’s objective to be “fuelling readers with methodology, encouraging one to systematize various TA techniques”. Great! I thought, it were a new discovery of Forex regularities to be delivered to traders. But it looks, like the scholar has plunged himself into systematizing earlier 50%-correct discoveries without taking any pertinent responsibility.

Hence, no avail to purchase the book and to litter one’s brain therewith, since Forex rates enjoy 50/50 up-down travel chance, even under the probability theory.

Thus, not too much understandable, where Demark’s scientific approach manifestation is to be searched, whereas the essence of things is incomprehensible once the reversal results come evident after an earth day only with no reference to his book.

John G. Murphy, another Forex scholar, outlines in the preface, that the “less art – more science” slogan is specially topical now that greater entities begin taking interest in this area.

As to myself, I have truly appreciated the preface writer Murphy joke as being filled with subtleness and tristesse.

Now, pertaining to science-to-practice correlation and theoretical conclusions implementation… How many scholars of those hundreds referred hereto resort to live examples while teaching long and short entries and close ups thereof? Very few of them:

- B. Williams “Trading Chaos”, “New aspects of Exchange Trading”;

- J. Murphy “TA of Futures Markets”

- S. Nisson “Japanese candlesticks. Financial markets graphic analysis”

- A. Elder “Basics of Exchange Trading”

- L. Williams. “Long-Term Secrets of Short Term Trade”

- Ch. Lebo, D. Lukas “Computer Analysis of Futures Markets”

- D. Swagger “TA, Comprehensive Course”
… and hardly few more.

Disappointing enough, but it is fairly lucid why 90% of beginners mutate into failures and abandon Forex.

By way of getting familiar with the SYSTEM, one will suddenly realize how smooth are Forex artifacts to get apparent one from another, e.g.: M5 Elliott waves constituting M15 wave I, this wave being but H1 and H4 corrective within certain Fibonacci levels.

One gets clear vision of what all the Forex-traded currencies are doing now and what they are going to in half a day. Williams did have grounds to claim, he needs several tens of minutes to analyze tens of charts. He DID have understood Forex as a system, though he has offered but the system components portrayal in his books. Depending on where utilized, the Alligator may appear to be responsible either for a profit or for a loss. But Williams has not even taken pains to present a differentiation between the Alligator being a profit assistant and the Alligator being a loss bringer.

The above is conditioned by the Williams Alligator being a great TA tool, but pertaining to a certain AREA OF Forex only. Other areas require other TA facilities. I will do my best to teach You to effect proper estimation of long-term and super short-term entries being appropriate for the moment.

I will also dwell on why it is not difficult to add extra 11 trend-killing bullets to the 5 of Williams’s; why it is easy to build up a currency travel vector daily projection. The whole thing is minimized to several criteria, being constantly effective irrespective of currency intentions. As a result, You will not have to monthly pay quacking mountebanks’ impotent daily forecasts.

But now let’s move on with Forex scientific criteria. Stagnation and dogmatism are alternative attributes of Forex folios’ anti-scientific substance. Have You ever come across a criticism of any Forex-oriented theory? I mean a weighed objective criticism, assigning credits to the author for elaborating a revolutionary theory, which has by now got obsolete due to a number of objective reasons and thus requires improvement, i.e. replacement.

For instance, I have found nothing of the kind in relation to the 100-year old Dow theory, originally incorporative of benign principles. But life goes on, and there seems no reason to head-hammer life-rectified Dow’s postulates:

- a long-term trend (primary, basic as per Dow) being several years long. Curious enough to spot a currency pair to stand open for so a long period;

- a medium-term trend (intermediate tendency) being several months long. As per Dow, the MTT is opposite (corrective) to the basic trend;

- a short-term trend, not exceeding 3 weeks and incarnating minor fluctuations within the intermediate tendency;

- intraday trend being per-Dow midget ripples, not worth paying attention to.

You are now welcome to take a close look at the figures below, as of October, 2004 through March, 2005.

Fig.11. EURUSD D1 chart. (See Note below)

Fig.12. GBPUSD D1 chart. (See Note below)

CONCLUSION: This theory of Dow’s might be deemed effective rather till late 80s, than presently.

Nowadays, with 3 pips spread, 50-200 pips pullbacks and trends not exceeding a week, the Dow theory

MUST BE recognized as being despairingly obsolete and trader-hostile, since, under a 3-pip spread, it is, certainly, top of recklessness and stupidity to stand open for months or years. A different trend classification is to be called for, meeting updated Forex environment standards.

I guess there’s no need to continue being proponent of the fact that presently Forex theories are obsolete in their majority, with this sort of methodology being requisite for analysts rather than for traders. As opposed, I hold it more appropriate to forward my entry and exit technique to traders willing to conduct successful and loss-safe trading.

By way of prompting: please, attempt to view Forex as a system inclusive of components being familiar to You: Elliott waves, reversal patterns, Fibonacci levels, MAs, ally currencies, etc. All the above staff is integrally intercommunicative rather than existing individually, the way, each organ is in the human body.

I DID have understood it, and I realized the way B. Williams is able to analyze tens of currencies within tens of minutes in order to execute correct long and short entries.

It may look surprising to someone, but a qualified doctor is capable to diagnose Your body hazards after a short examination and talking to You. The doctor has actually examined but several organs, but his knowledge system has empowered him to jump at wider conclusions, as Williams at Forex.

GROSS TOTAL. Steady and regular Forex profits are real opportunity. There is hardly another area which enables one to knock up a fortune without having rich aged relatives abroad, without having to join one’s native country’s throughout corruptible authorities or else. If You have discovered THAT ANOTHER area, You are free to get engaged therein. Then, Forex is not likely to be requisite.

Note:

Full text of this article and pictures of examples http://www.masterforex-v.su/

If you wish to be trained on Trading System Masterforex-V – one of new and most effective techniques of trade on Forex in the world visit http://www.masterforex-v.su/

Author: Vyacheslav Vasilevich
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Forex Secrets – Delusion No1 – Forex Currency Rate And Economic Factors Impact On Exchange Rate

The delusion conceptually propounds that intraweek and intraday FOREX currency quotes movement is governed by either improvement or by deterioration of the states economic situation. But in reality, even in case the actual Forex news is superior to the estimated one, the FOREX quotes up/down movement is of 50/50 probability.

This statement is thoroughly important. Once the job of Forex trader is gambling on FOREX exchange rates differential (FOREX pairs up/down movement), the following is to be realized to obtain faultless profit:

FOREX pairs pricing mechanism (say at point X where you are completing the market analysis)
Factors imparting growth/decline to FOREX rates (up/down from point X).
Thus, having understood the FOREX rates factors effective at the extra-exchange (book-maker) FOREX market and the given currency motive factors, a trader must possess distinct knowledge of whether to buy or to sell the given currency pair.

So, what are these factors?

FOREX student suggest unambiguous interpretation of factors responsible for the price formation and the fluctuations there of:

Forex rate constitutes a demand-supply balance for a given goods (currency).
Any violation of this balance, (for instance, in case where the estimated news is in disagreement with the issued official one), results in the FOREX rates reciprocation in chase of a new demand-supply balance. Poor demand brings about decline in a certain currency rate, with a high demand leading to the growth of the latter. The situation continues as long as the currency buy/sell demand comes to balance at another level or at another point.
Referring to the B. Williams (Trading Chaos 2 Chapter 1 The market is what you are thinking of it):

Each world market is dedicated to distribute or share limited amount of something among those desirous to obtain it most of all. The market affects it by way of finding out and identifying the exact price? Underlying the buyer/sellers power absolute equilibrium point.

The above point is readily established by stock, futures, bonds, FOREX and options markets, be it either via an open auction or by virtue of a computerized facility. Markets spot this point prior to any misbalance being detectable by you or by me or even by traders at the exchange floor.

With this scenario holding true and it really does we are in position to jump at certain simple yet important conclusions as regards the information being circulated through the market and enjoying doubtless acceptance.

Thomas Demark was more laconic in Technical analysis – an emerging science:

Price movement is governed by demand and supply. Should demand exceed supply, theres a price rally and if visa versa, theres a price decline. All economists do share these underlying principles.

Hence, the role of fundamental analysis for FOREX market is readily apparent.

In scholar fiction one will discover roughly the following explanation, persistently wandering from book to book, from site to site and suggesting attaining successful trading at FOREX market by way of scrutinizing the countrys economic fundamental data, viz. by tracking the factors reflective of the countrys economy condition as below:

State economy condition dynamics indicators (GDP, trade & payments balance, current account, industrial production, etc. It is knowledge, that the higher the above indicators the faster the economic and the currency price growth);

Stock indices, via average arithmetic index of the countrys securities market condition and dynamics. E.g.: 0.3% daily DJI growth in the USA means that this certain day the shares of 30 leading US companies, being pictured by DJU, went 0.3% more expensive. By similarity, DAX30 is the major German index, incorporating the price of shares of the countrys 30 leading companies.

The countrys interest rate, since the higher the rate, the greater number of investors is eager to invest into the countrys economy and hence into national currency strength.

Rate of inflation (the higher the rate, the quicker the National Bank will hike the interest rate). With this assumption, the CPI constitutes a key factor.

Money supply growth in domestic market, which fact brings about the inflation, leading to the interest rate hike.

The countrys gold and currency reserve assets.

Variation dynamics correlation of: balances of payment, trade balance, state budget, gross domestic product (GDP), etc.

Trade and industry dynamics (industrial production, industrial orders, DGO, capacity utilization, retail sales, etc.)

Construction statistics (construction spending, new home sales, housing under construction, building permits, etc.)

Labor statistics (unemployment rate, new jobs, etc.)
Society investigations (consumer confidence, consumer sentiment, purchase managers and service managers sentiment, etc.)

To be considered additionally are the countrys political stability and tranquility (clearly, any political, natural and other cataclysms are sure to turn investors nervous making them withdraw the investments from the country, thus weakening its national currency). And with the currency being the national economy derivative, changes in economic data will inevitably result in the above currency rate movement.
Conclusions:

Progress in economy results in the currency exchange rate rally.

Decrease in economic indicators leads to the national currency rate decline.
To sum it up, critical economic and political news (whose calendar is issued in advance and is familiar to any trader) constitute a standing factor giving rise to misbalance and causing the currency rate fluctuations.

In anticipation of important economic and political news FOREX pair crawl to the rates as inspired by the estimates (rumored trade), whereas upon actual news there occurs a pulse motion of FOREX pairs in accordance with the scheme below;

Forex rate grows if actual news are better than the estimated one;
Forex rate declines if actual news are worse than the estimated one.
ARE YOU FAMILIAR WITH THESE ABC BASICS OF STUDYING FOREX?

Do you accept that one can earn money by way of using these basics, known to every trader?

Then why, having absorbed these economic axioms, 90% of Forex traders in the world are losers rather than winners.

Where is the delusion of the above ABC truth, nudging traders towards losses? Let us perform sort of point-by-point analysis.

The currency exchange FOREX market is a book-makers one. It is gambling on rates difference without direct money delivery to the exchange market, except for hedging of traders funds by Forex brokers, via buy-sell difference especially during strong trends). Then, http://www.forexite.com reads: Trading is performed without actual currencies supply, which fact cuts overheads and enables Forexite to go long and short on the currency http://www.forexite.com/forexite_advantages/forex_advantages.html.

Comment: Have you ever met any book-makers;

- whose logics was coincident with that of THEIR clients (traders),

- whose stakes were being made in accordance with THEIR technical analysts forecasts, economic laws and common sense?

And what extent of doubt and skepticism should be attached to THEIR free recommendations, advice, surveys and forecasts, laid out at THEIR sites through THEIR analysts?

As a regular result, over 90% of the world traders are still loosing their deposits at FOREX each time they follow Thomas Demark stereotype that All the economists share these underlying principles.

Comment No.1. In as much as the above underlying principles are 90% contradictory to practice, it gives rise to the following question. Might these underlying principles, shared by all economists including Thomas Demark have possibly turned into dogma, alien to life and practice?

Comment No.2. What should a trader lean on: practice or dogma even if supported by great names, provided that the trader is purported at earning money?

FOREX analysts issuing their daily bulky market reviews are not FOREX traders in the overwhelming majority (see detailed discussion below). And on bringing together pairs 1, 2 and 3 there appears certain regularity.

Please, think over A. Elder words, that: FOREX rates and the fundamental analysis are tied together with a mile-long rope. The fundamental analysis is ultimately decisive. But anything is likely to happen prior to this eventuality. Another, yet no less renowned trader and analyst, Bill Williams underlines the same mental regularity of an experienced professional trader (level 3 of his traders skill rating as per Trading Chaos 2): On attaining level 3 you emerge as a self-provided pro trader. You are always familiar with the markets basic, usually invisible structure. You no longer need to refer to others opinions. You neednt read Wall Street Journal, watch market-oriented TV programs, and subscribe to information bulletins, waste money on information channels.

Comment: Logically, there is a counter-implication, that if You are eager to become a successful trader, You are to restrict the influence of various surveys and recommendations on yourself even in case they originate from the world famous Wall Street Journal, to say nothing of crude gurus in analyst skins who use to know ahead of time where currencies will go.

Forex news is a scheduled issue of fundamental data, which as a rule impairs FOREX rates a sharp pulse of motion. But then, why the currency rates movement vector is only 50% coincident with the ABC truism logics as to where the rate should rush in case of actual news being much better or worse than the estimate. And, please, make an attempt to answer the following question, stirring for every trader: why with the new being worse than expected (say, on US economy), the USD currency would initially fall by 40 pips (news work-off) but in 5 to 10 minutes it would swivel back and would display a 200-point rally, with no account to either the issued news or to common sense.

Below are some examples:

Fig. 1. GBPUSD chart as of April 1, 2005 after the news, positive for the GBP and negative for the US economy.
See Note below

In March the CIPS manufacturing index amounted to 52.0 (with the previous data revised from 51.8 to 51.6). Oil price in NYC has grown by USD 2.40 up to USD57.70 per bbl (new record of the latest 21 years). Non-farm payrolls in the USA was minimum since last July (previous data revised towards lower values). There has been a decline in the Michigan sentiment index to 92.6 (median estimate was 92.9, with 92.9 previously).

All the US indices faced a fall down. DJI at NYSE has fallen by 99.46 pips (-0.95%) towards closing at 10404.30. NASDAQ declined by 14.42 pips (-0.72%) to 1984.81. S&P500 slipped by 7.67 pips (-0.65%) to 1172.92. 30-yr US Bonds yielded 4.729 (0.037 lower as compared to the previous close). By contrary, FTSE100 has grown by 19.60 pips (+0.40%) to 4914.00.

Now, the question is to certified economists: what will happen to the GBPUSD within one day or even several hours upon publication of these data? You are right, USD should not simply fall down, it should collapse. Powerfully, swiftly. Well, well

And this time, the same question to experienced traders. By FOREX news headlines You might have guessed that the events are taking place at the Friday American session. Correct. Initially, anyway, the GBPUSD chart will go up by 100 pips (news wok-off), followed by a pullback. Then Forex chart starts a new rally.

It is now to be tracked whether the GBP will breach the latest rally high or not. If affirmative, it will rush up by approximately 160 pips (Elliott wave 1 was 100 pips, while EW 3 is 60% longer). But if the high is not breached? The GBP currency quote will in no way come to a standstill, moreover on Friday afternoon. Hence, – down, to the starting point! And, if breached, similar situation takes shape but the counting is performed in a down direction (EW1, being the same 100 pips plus 187 pips from 1.8826 to 1.8759 being EW 3).

The FOREX day trading tactics will be given scrutiny in a separate chapter. A still separate chapter will be dedicated to Friday trade at American session due to its inherent specifics and to strong seemingly inappropriate movement. The movement is, of course, appropriate. To say nothing of Friday. But it will be touched upon later.

Now, getting back to the currency chart. As apparent, the GBPUSD pair movement on Friday, April, 01, 2005 is in no way in conjunction with the US economy fundamental data. Each forex trader can provide from tens to hundreds of similar instances, where the news are of a certain vector, whereas, after a fraudulent rush along the news vector, a currency applies reverse thrust.

Thereafter, the next day, in daily currency surveys, certified economists are sure to explain all to us by way of inventing another undisguised nonsense, like: in spite of certain data, traders decided that the currency has already worked-off this side. But! How could this occur on Apr, 01, 2005, provided that the currency has been staying flat in a narrow range in the course of the whole of the European session?

Otherwise, another explanation may emerge, that forex traders were expecting still more inferior news on the US economy But! By how much more inferior, if according to DJ, the US non-farm payrolls MA was equivalent to 180K, with actual being +110K, estimate being +225K and prior being +243K? And in what manner do these economists count up world traders: by capita, by countries or by the funds, lost by those, who continued staying long in a holy belief in renowned academic scholars postulate of FOREX rates being tied up to countries economy statistics.

I wonder if Ill ever chance to witness legal procedures to be instituted against any of those famous scholars, so that no one would dare claim that fundamental data trigger rate spikes.

The same pertains to economists, writing about the way, hundreds of thousands traders throughout the globe have conspired to conclude that it is time to reverse the trends with absolutely no grounds. Is it really feasible?

Such reading-matter is, but hammering a single question into ones head: is it lie or is it stupidity of those cooking daily reports for taking traders for a ride, fooling them up and keeping them from the truth, which might be of great avail to them in daily trading. Traders are not a decisive factor, thus rates movement is in no way dependent on their will. Practically in no way.

Wanna check? Negotiate with tens of traders of the trading floor and arrange for a simultaneous entry long on some exotic FOREX pair. In so doing, try to push up either the NZDHKD, or the NZDCAD, or the HKDCAD. No need? I think so. Youll certainly suffer failure with the above, to say nothing of the EUR, GBP, CHF.

Another example:

Fig.2. GBPUSD movement as of May 13, 2005.

See Note below

This is an M15 chart of the American session, where the USD pair has grown by over 100 pips from 1.8583 to 1.8481 against the news, negative for the US economy:

Most indices have dropped down: DJI at NYSE by 49.36 pips (-0.48%) to close at 10140.12; S&P500 by 5.31 pips (-0.46%) to 1154.05. NASDAQ has grown by 12.92 pips (+0.66%) to1976.80. 30yr US Bonds yielded 4.484 (0.047 drop from previous close)

There is a fall in Michigan sentiment index. In May UMich was 85.3 with med est 90.0 and prior 87.7. So it was worse than the estimate, reaching the low since March, 2003. The index decline was being observed for the fifth month.

The April US export price index was +0.6% with prior of +0.7%.

Below are other similar examples of that same day.

Fig. 3. EURUSD chart as of May 13, 2005.

See Note below

Hundreds of examples may be offered, where the Forex news vector is opposite to that of the currency movement. Practically, actual news may happen to be superior or inferior to the estimate. FOREX quotes up/down movement is also of 50/50 probability irrespective of the above.

Why does it happen and what is the way for a trader to pinpoint entries and exits? This is going to be discussed in ensuing chapters of this book.

Note:

Full text of this article and pictures of examples http://www.masterforex-v.su/

If you wish to be trained on Trading System Masterforex-V – one of new and most effective techniques of trade on Forex in the world visit http://www.masterforex-v.su/

Author: Vyacheslav Vasilevich
Article Source: EzineArticles.com
Provided by: Credit card currency-exchange fees

Forex Secrets – Developing The “Anti-Chaos” Trading Strategy And Tactics At Forex Market (Part II)

(See beginning of this article under name Forex Secrets – Developing the “anti-chaos” trading strategy and tactics at Forex market (Part I)

It is horrible to imagine what could happen to USD rate at the spontaneous market in this case. At the controllable market of Forex USD rate would fall down just by 1-2%.

I hope that my opponents, who deny the existence of a system controlling Forex market, do remember the elementary economical laws. The spontaneous market is a barometer that establishes the real price of goods on the basis of the demand and supply (in the given case, it is the real rate of exchange of any national currency).

The Episode #2 . The hurricane Katrina and the flood in USA on September 7, 2005. USD rate stably increases. Chronicle of events.

As the result of the dam (dike) debacle, several states in USA become submerged. The industry, agriculture and transport network were destroyed. There started panic not only among common inhabitants but among officials of various ranks as well. Hundreds and thousands of people perished. There were cases of looting. Many looters (and, maybe, just desperately hungry and thirsty people) were shot by soldiers of USA army. The government of USA declared this hurricane to be a disaster on a national scale. For the first time a new plan of civic defense was introduced (see BBC. The total chronicle of events).

Katrina was bringing USA to ruin. Senators from Louisiana asked $250 milliards from the federal budget for getting over Katrina after-effects.

Thus, it is an illustrative example of the greatest natural cataclysms in USA in the last decades. Even the poorest country in the world Haiti provided the financial help for USA ($ 36 thousands). The help of Ukraine made 1 million of hrivnias , etc.

What did happen to USD rate at the controllable Forex market? Notwithstanding all economical laws and even against the common sense, USD rate increased!

Chart 8.7. EURO/USD pair movement (For view picture see notes in end of article)

Chart 8.8. GBP/USD pair movement (For view picture see notes in end of article)

Brief conclusions for traders .

As I think, the thesis that Forex has turned from the spontaneous market to the controllable one does not need further proofs. Hence, traders must introduce amendments into strategy and tactic of their work at Forex.

What are the conclusions, significant for traders, logically follow from these facts?

Under the new conditions of the controllable market, a trader must not follow the crowd (flock). As B. Williams, A. Elder and many other authors have fairly emphasized, the crowd pushes the price at any spontaneous market. On the contrary, at the organized Forex market orders must be opened in advance of Consortiums interests!

I try to find the core of a good sense in each technique of the successful work at Forex . Is it necessary to rediscover the well-known principles? There are many prosperous traders who openly and honestly present their methods of gaining profits at Forex . If their techniques are successful, it means that these authors have a thorough grasp of the problem in its essence.

However, in practice, each of the techniques sometimes brings profits, whereas in other cases it is disadvantageous. And it does not matter, whether this technique is developed by B. Williams or by a not celebrated but a successful trader.

Conclusion #1. It is necessary to clearly delineate the domains where a given technique does work and where it fails (as well as the corresponding reasons). In such a way we can clearly understand what of the method by a given trader is worthwhile to be used as well as how and when to make advantage of it for our work at Forex .

Conclusion #2 . Your trading system must not be just a mixture (farrago) of various techniques. This rule is especially important for the beginners. After reading heaps of books on Forex , all of them make complaints about such a mess in their heads instead of enlightenment.

Conclusion #3. A trader must develop his own trading system. In order to gain profit, the following steps must be taken:

a. you choose just any technique developed by any author-trader (e.g., mine or B. Williamss, or somebodys else);

b. you must get used to work with the demo account according to this technique to such extent of automatism that you sense it as your own initial (original) trading system of the work at Forex

c. Only after this you should start to study additional literature. You must clearly see what pointes, borrowed from other authors, can help you personally to work at Forex , to improve your trading system for getting extra profits.

Objectiveness of Forex turning from the spontaneous market into the controllable one. The pattern of this process

Any profitable business transits from the spontaneous to the controllable one. It is an objective stage in the evolution of business undertakings.

In each branch of a big and super profitable business the initial stage of the chaotic competitive straggle is already has been passed through (petroleum, gas, ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy, precious metals, arms traffic, etc.). At present all these areas are definitely divided between the principal participants. That is, there exist certain financially-industrial groupings, well-controllable and protected from intrusion of a concurrent.

The same concerns the biggest and most conservative area of business i.e., its financial branch, the world market of currency exchange included. Can it be otherwise? Can Chaos rule the market where the turnover exceeds $1 trillion per day? Can the biggest banks and governments depend on Chaos i.e., be dependable of the off-floor traders such as me and you? Can these organizations be worried about the direction in which we (traders) could turn the trend of all national currencies at this or that second? It is ridiculous to imagine!

To realize the power of the grouping that has organized the game of Forex all over the world, we should refer to the thesis from the journal Speculator. In June, 2001 the three biggest dealers at Forex market – Citibank, J.P. Morgan Chase и Deutsche Bank together with Reuters Group PLC had started up the system Atriax . However, the latter did not meet competition and stopped operations in spring, 2002. The author of the paper just hinted that even the alliance of the 3 biggest world banks could not make any serious competition to Organizer of the game at Forex (to Consortium or somebody else).

In this connection, how one can take on trust the principal thesis by B. Williams concerning Trading chaos that rules Forex? Whats important, all methods of this author issue from this postulate. The following conclusion by B. Williamss also raises doubts. He states that trends are created by traders, whereas brokers just realize these trends and place traders orders. According to B. Williams, the fact that now trends are made rather off-floor than on floor (as it was earlier) permits detecting what next will happen at the market (see Trading Chaos, Chapter 6).

So, to what extent can B. Williamss techniques be correct if their basis is principally erroneous? Let us enumerate the fundamental mistakes made in Trading Chaos. It is necessary to facilitate understanding of the techniques and practical recommendations given by B. Williams concerning the work at Forex .

1. B. Williams sees Forex as a spontaneous market, uncontrollable by anybody. According to this author, it is chaos but not an organized system that would have its own strategy, tactic, techniques, goals, methods of fraud, etc.

2. B. Williams mentions the pair trader + broker. However, unconsciously or deliberately, he has omitted the third participant of this very process. This is banks and the world financial system in general. Surely, this organization will not just take a detached view of the traders arbitrary game with the basic world currencies (USD, EURO, GBP, CHF, etc.).

Let us now evolve B. Williamss idea by ourselves. Our aim is to demonstrate absurdity of his chaos theory applied to the up-to-date market of Forex.

How brokers and banks market-makers can pay off profits from traders deposits if the traders total earnings would be bigger than the market-makers profit in this period?

Being in shoes of market-makers, National Banks, governments of leading countries of the world, etc., how will you conduct yourself on the eve of the news issue? For instance, after the publication of Michigan University Index, USD can go up by 150-200 points with respect to all national currencies. That is, in several hours dozens of milliards of USD will be redistributed. Somebody will earn the money, whereas somebody will lose it because of the difference in rates of exchange (quotations).

What will you do in the place of the biggest financial groupings? Would you just be sitting and taking sedative pills? Would you just be trying to guess what steps will be taken by professors of a Michigan University? Will 0.3% be added to the index previous value (91.4) or subtracted from it? Whats important, this difference makes milliards of USD for somebody! Possessing such capitals, would you just be sitting idly and waiting for God knows what? More probably, you will try to make this process controllable and predictable. Rather you will do your best to gain profit with the help of such indices and news. I think you will try to let the others lose their money.

What does the theory of chaos at Forex represent by itself if Organizer of the game has trained all traders to act according to the stereotype?

a). To place stop-losses and postponed orders at the same places.

b). If the issued news are better than the prognostication, one must stake on buy. Otherwise (if the news are worse than the prognostication), it is necessary to stake on sell.

c). If a quicker moving average crosses the slower one upwards, the order must be opened on buy. In the case of the downward crossover, the order must be opened on sell.

d). In the case of divergence, one must try to work against the trend. B. Williams and other classics at least had to mention that it was basically absurd to work like this at the beginning of the trend and in the middle of it.

This is why the given chapter is named Anti-trading chaos to be more precise, it is the anti-trading system.

Further Ill not dwell on absurdity of the chaos theory by B. Williams when applied to Forex . I hope it is quite clear. Any trader can find a lot of evidences of the fact that Forex is a controllable market. There are also many examples that prove fallacy of B. Williamss conclusion that traders form a trend and “push” it.

As I get it, the game of Forex and its rules in their essence are the following.

1. There is Organizer of the financial game (the Alligator) and participants (victims).

2. Organizer always tries to demonstrate: a). objectivity and honesty of the rules established by himself; b). simplicity of the analysis, predictability of the situations and the possibility of earning money easily and regularly by one of the numerous methods of the analysis (FA, TA, etc.).

3. All participants of the game are subjected to the same psychological treatment by Brokers, authors of numerical classical works on Forex and analysts via their sites and prognoses. That is, such specialists teach every trader to work as all others in the world do.

As the result, Organizer beforehand knows the traders line of conduct in these or those situations. The percentage of players-losers is stable about 90%.

4. A rapid growth in the number of fraudulent machinations developed by Brokers has become a logical continuation of the above-enumerated rules of the given game. Economists from Brokers have quickly grasped that the number 90% of traders-loses is very close to the figure 100%. What for will they send clients transactions to the foreign market (the market-maker bank)? In fact, traders will lose all the same! Besides, it is possible to slightly help traders in their losing by knocking down stop-losses – all traders keep their stop-losses approximately at the same place. In addition, the following tricks can be done as well: the slippage (opening of transactions at a price much worse than the price at which the trader wanted to open the deal); computer pending at the beginning of the heavy movement in currency pairs. One can give many analogous examples up to the undisguised fraudulent nonpayment of earned profits to traders.

These centers are also protected from the viewpoint of finances. If in flats the sums of orders of the traders who open transactions on buy and sell are approximately equal, Brokers can always hedge the difference between buy and sell with a market-maker under the condition of a heavy trend.

The only thing that cheats from Brokers are afraid of is the unmasking of methods of their work. Really, this will put an end to the afflux of new victims!

There are several sure signs of a fraudulent Brokers. In my educational course I enumerate some of such indications. However, here I give only one characteristic (traders should think about it well). If Brokers has one point of spread, you should calculate expenses on the marginal trade, in detail described in all classical manuals of Forex . For instance, let it be thought that you open the order for one lot. Forex Brokers supposedly buys EURO to the sum of $ 100 thousands for you. When you close the order, Forex Brokers supposedly transfer EURO to USD again. Thus, if you open 10 deals with EURO/USD pair during a day, your Forex Brokers is supposed to send money abroad and get it back 10 times, buying EURO for USD and v.v. All these transactions must be made exceptionally for you! Is it realistic?

In a next-door bank you should ask the conditions for the transfer of $100 thousands abroad and back. You will learn the cost of the commission for such services and the time required for this transaction (in half a day, the next day, etc.). Here I do not mention the papers that must be prepared for each transfer. I also say nothing about the time required for collecting all signatures.

I wonder, during this period of time what changes will occur in EURO/USD rate as the latter is altering every second?

5. To earn regularly at Forex, you have to master yourself. That is, a trading scheme must be developed. According to this scheme you will work against generally accepted rules. As it is already mentioned, these rules are popularized by Organizer of the game at Forex . Sticking to these rules, more than 90% of traders all over the world lose their money.

6. Developing my trading system, I have made use of numerous generally-recognized techniques of the work at Forex (by B. Williams, etc.). Surely, there is a kernel of good sense in any technique that enables earning money even if in 50% of cases. Therefore, the traders task is to differentiate the conditions, under which a given technique can provide profit. It is also necessary to understand where, when and why this technique yields a loss to the trader. Naturally, a trader must use only this first part of the system, where one can gain profit.

7. For the development of your own trading system, you must do your best to organically integrate different techniques, profitable at Forex. Various methods of giving analysis to Forex from different viewpoints do help us to more thoroughly and profoundly understand this market and, consequently, to gain profit regularly.

8. The game of Forex is widely spread all over the world. In addition to speculators, there are other participants in Forex e.g., individuals who need to exchange currency for their business. All these factors provide an objective opportunity to gain profits bigger (and more regularly) than in any other financial game of the world.

9. Therefore, Forex gives a real opportunity to get into the principally new financial market and to become a really independent. Anybody can be engaged in trading at any point in the world. For sure, a State, much as it would want it, cannot deprive a trader of his production facilities because in this area gaining of profit depends just on ones techniques and skill.

10. Forex gives you just a chance to earn money. However, not everybody can learn how to gain real profit. Even after having mastered the fundamentals of making money at Forex , a trader needs to learn a lot of additional factors in order to transform his potential abilities into real money. In this connection the following aspects are very important.

a). the psychological stability (the absence of fear and hazard, the ability to work automatically at the subconscious level, etc);

b). a reliable broker (the traders profits, being virtual, materialize only if you can convert it into real money at any second);

c). self-perfection via mastering new techniques of gaining profit, learning from an experienced instructor and due to exchanging opinions with other traders;

d). the possibility of obtaining money from the investor for the asset management. This gives the opportunity to proceed from the level of ones own deposit of several hundreds or thousands of USD to the principally new level of the work at Forex. In this way one can simultaneously reinvest a part of ones profits into the deposit and to spend money on heightening of ones own well-being. There is a simple example. At mini- Forex , many traders do not earn a lot of money: even if a trader has doubled his deposit in a month, his profit is small (e. g., by making $100 out of $50). Besides, a part of it he must take off from the deposit for the daily needs. Ill not give examples of large deposits because the tactics of work with them are principally different as well as the percentage of profit.

11. Not everybody can cover a distance from the chance (the dream) to its realization i.e., to making real money at Forex . As a trader, here you work against Organizer of this game, who is the professional. That is, to earn money regularly by taking it away from Organizer, one must become the professional himself. Do not hurry to open a real account at least till the time when you will learn to do the following:

a). As B. Williams himself, in several minutes to clearly see two possible alternatives of currency pair movement at the beginning of each session. Correspondingly, you must develop two business plans, where points of input into the market and output from it must be clearly designated.

b). To work out ones own tactic of the work with the demo account at Forex to perfection. The aim is to augment the demo account at least 2.5-3 times in a month.

c). To develop the long-term and intermediate strategies (not less than a month and a week, respectively) – as well as the short-term tactic (the intra-day trading session). Acquisition of this knowledge will help you to gain profit.

d). After opening of the real account, at the beginning you must work only with trends (under the conditions of flats you must deal with demo accounts). It is necessary to clearly distinguish one from another at the beginning of trading.

e). You must choose two ally currency pairs and work with them continuously, accumulating experience.

12. There can be reasons why your demo account does not augment regularly (in particular, maybe you are too busy at your main job). In this case, you better forget about Forex ! You must not open a real account there. It means that Forex is not intended for you.

By the way, there is completely nothing humiliating in the inability to make money at Forex . Some people do not understand technology, or literature. Others do not come to know fine arts, politics or sports, etc. Does anybody consider oneself inferior because of this reason? Surely, not at all!

Analogously, I perfectly well realize that the reaction to the last two items of my vision of the game at Forex can be inadequate. It will stimulate an immediate tide of slander and lies concerning me and my book. The reason is that Im not an employee of BROKER but a trader. I try to understand recent rules of the game at Forex, its mechanisms and to explain them to others.

Note:

Full text of this article and pictures of examples http://www.masterforex-v.su/

If you wish to be trained on Trading System Masterforex-V – one of new and most effective techniques of trade on Forex in the world visit http://www.masterforex-v.su/

Author: Vyacheslav Vasilevich
Article Source: EzineArticles.com
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Forex Secret – Forex Literature As A 90-95% Of The Traders Loose Their Deposit (Part I)

This delusion globally entails identical aftermaths: 90-95% of traders turn steady to loose their deposits having studied books by Bill Williams, Alexander Elder, Thomas Demark, J. Schwager, et al.

Following the burn down of their first deposit traders plunge themselves again into scrutinizing Forex scholars, in this manner suffering losses of the second, the third and subsequent deposit. I will hereinafter try to elucidate where from the above regularity grows, so that no trader repeats his forerunners mistakes.

This statistics is common knowledge: 90% of traders constitute Forex losers But the figure has always been giving rise to a leviathan of my doubts. It isnt because of somewhat different 95%-5% loser-to-winner ratio quoted in the Van Tarp and Brian June Intraday trading: secrets of mastership. With 90% quoted universally, there naturally emerges the question, as to whether there is someone capable to check, to specify or to disprove the above figure.
NO ONE IS, besides the directors of largest Western banks providing streamline Forex quotes, but having never raised the issue.

WHY? Because should this statistics be published, there will be sharp and ultimate decline in number of those chasing easy profits from the world Forex market. Otherwise banks would not keep mum in advertising purposes. Neither would they be silent if losers constituted at least by few points less than 90%. In any advertising, customer attraction is ensured by quoting beneficial maxima and non-lucrative minima. This has always been, is being and will always be a universal practice.

As a conclusion, 10% Forex winners is a maximum result among traders. Its them, who have understood Forex market absolutely simple truisms and who attained steady daily earnings in amounts being gained by others within years or even the whole of life.
Certainly, those are to be recollected, who in late 80s were the first in the ex-USSR to grasp laws of commerce and who began accumulating their initial stock. The rules used to be so simple that presently any schoolboy or a first-year student can show the way the capital might have been easily scraped up and augmented on the USSR debris and in the course of market relations being established in the post-Soviet space.

I do exactly allow for the fact that through the years a new generation will be laughing at the way we are now incapable to comprehend the laws, where under currency rates either spike up or fall down, all of a sudden.

With this provision, those seeking fast money at Forex have a much greater time limit than the ones engaged in capital building in the post-Soviet space (Forex market is incommensurably greater than that in the ex-USSR), but not to the extent thought by many.

By now trends are thoroughly less numerous than they used to be 10-20 years ago. By way of taking a glance the charts history You are in the position to understand the way traders used to earn under 20- 40 pts spread, commission and slippage. A trend was followed by a trend at that epoch.

AND WHATS NOW? Nowadays many of traders are impotent to gain under 3 pts spread without commission and slippage.

Thus, this book is intended for those willing to perceive Forex market laws.
In order to get understanding of the way 5-10% of successful traders obtain profits, lets at the outset analyze the reasons and the way the outstanding 90% of traders suffer losses. The 90%-figure looks scaring, to say nothing of 95% or 98%. It occurs despite the amount of literature on the issue equals to hundreds of fundamental books, written by authors, having gained capitals expressed by means of more than 7-digit figures (G. Soros, B. Williams, A. Elder, T. Demark).

Thus, the above minimum of 90% of smart, well-read, broad-knowledged people:

- scrutinize the really great traders heritage;

- open accounts with Forex Broker’s and banks, start trading and

- loose funds up to complete rout!

AND WHERES THE LOGIC? The answer springs to mind by itself… Theres something wrong in the literature (by the way, recognized throughout the world, where the deposit-killing statistics is as disappointing as it is in our country) so long as its studying yields such oppressive results.

STRANGE? No, rather natural, than strange on account of the following:

1. Being a great trader is not indicative of everyone being a great teacher.

2. Multitude of rules elaborated by scholars 10-40 years ago, has grown obsolete, since the Forex market is changing.

3. The scholars HAVE NOT revealed ALL the secrets even WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE THEN

FOREX, therefore by now their advice and recommendation turn out either obsolete or nave.

Thus, once ones advice and recommendations bring every 9 of 10 market participants to loose their money in each country, where ones books have used to be published and have enjoyed all sorts of hosanna in the press, THEN ONE IS NONE OF A TEACHER.

Naturally, no trader will reveal his professional secrets to the full. But when studying Forex literature one gets astonished by a negligible extent the above secrets are confided at all, with a book on Forex containing 99% of common truth and 1% only of useful novelties. But should one train up even several thousands perspective traders, one will in no way burden oneself with competitors, due to the Forex market huge sale nature. Beyond a shadow of a doubt the above traders are really great. You may agree or not, but anyone, having earned USD1 bn or more, deserves being named great. So, ones books should be published as memoirs. I am not attaching any irony hereto, since these persons have acquired gains by virtue of their minds and labor, as opposite to Rockfellers, who inherited their fortunes or to Russian oligarchs, who either stole or got their capitals dirt-cheap from state authorities.

Hopefully, understandable is the difference between such editions and manuals for beginners.

G. Kasparov, say, is far from writing manuals for chess beginners, since the job can be better completed by others with this fact not at all undermining Kasparovs being a great chess player. And his advice and recommendation is sure to be of interest rather to a close circle of grand masters, than to those having touched the chess for the first time.

Actually Kasparov is but to be respected for not being tempted by the lust for fast money, by virtue of his name in the chess world and by way of cooking up manuals for beginners.

At Forex, by contrast, and for some reason, everyone deems oneself a teacher, which fact results in millions educated people worldwide leaving stock market being disappointed, angry with an inferiority complex life-time pursuit.

And hence, the unanswered question for them: is that all a fraud or not, since gains are midget, whereas losses are titanic?

I am recalling the book titled The Alchemy of Finance by G. Soros (the one Ive read in early 90-s). I admit, its interesting, instructive, but it is all narrated in so an inarticulate and tangled manner. As indicated in the foreword by an American investor, the theory has hardly been understood by few only.

So whats the use of writing in such a manner? A theory may generally be complicated to any extent, BUT IT MUST BE wrapped in a simple, clear and understandable wording.
You are welcome to attempt to read the above book once You have time to. Shortly, the Soros reflexivity theory of the countries cyclic development may easily bear a couple-sentence confinement:

1. Following liberation from totalitarian yoke, a country is granted credits, then, there is a rapid growth and flourish of economy.

2. As soon as the above credits are to be paid back, a countrys economy faces a natural recession.

Is it as difficult? The question may be addressed to a schoolboy (to say nothing of an American investor): when should those countries companies shares be purchased and when they are to be advantageously sold in order to acquire maximum profit? Whats going to happen in case one is too late to sell the shares, shortly exhibiting an impetuous growth in price?

Propounded long before, the Soros theory has been entirely corroborated in August, 98 by the dismal practice established in Asian and Pacific countries and later in Russia.

There still is another question: how inarticulate should Soros have been to enable his theory to be grasped by few only?

The second part of the book is not worth retelling. Reading its original is sure to be much more instructive with my annotation leaving no conundrums therein.

The theory is permeated by Soross strategy: enter long on whats shortly going to enjoy price growth with a 100% probability and pull out Your money along with profits before the companies enter crisis, thus facilitating bankruptcies thereof.
This is the way I clearly lecture my students on Forex-related complexities, thus conveying my logics to them. Despite its own complexities (news, TA, corrective actions, etc.), Forex is essentially reduced to a very simple truth: at a certain moment one should not be late with going long or short on a currency with tertium non datum.

And when asked if the Williams Alligator needs something to be added thereto, the majority of my students reply Yes!, indicating what exactly is to be added.
Ill present a detailed vivisection of the issue in a separate chapter by way of proving that the Williams Alligator is but 50% effective.

Fig. 4. H1 EUR chart as of April 12, 2005. (See Note below)

The Alligators jaws display upward opening with a fractal formed at 1.3006. According to Williams, one should enter long one point higher, i.e. at 1.3007. Upward motion continues extra 11 points. Then the rate sharply swivels to fall down by 170 pts.
Another example.

Fig. 5. H1 EUR chart as of April 22, 2005. (See Note below)

Please, figure out 1.3094, 16 pts above the previous fractal, following the Alligator upward opening. Thereafter, a sharp down swivel covering 140 pts.
Hundreds of similar examples may be drawn. But what are the implications?

With the Alligators mouth opened, 50% of entries should be pro-Williams while the outstanding 50% – counter-Williams (i.e. vectored opposite to the Alligator mouth opening). When embarking on Forex, You must possess clear knowledge of the difference between either of the above 50%-portions. Otherwise, You are doomed to loose even if You follow Williamss technique, let alone other ones.

Even my students are in the position to advise what is to be added to Alligator in order to realize proper entry vectoring. Least of all would I want this example to be taken as a personal criticism of Bill Williams, whose contribution to the Forex theory is a significant one. And the majority of traders, like me, used to begin earning after studying HIS books. But not to go astray, even without any addenda Williams managed to make a tremendous fortune, since a skilled trader (moreover being the Alligators father) is capable to differentiate between a steady travel and a pullback, or, say, a flat, or, visa versa, a trend low for the entry to be vectored oppositely. It is all fairly understandable for an experienced trader. But what about beginners as regards their interpretation of a flat, a recovery or a trend change?

These folks are sure to require assistance, especially, in information not presented in literature on Forex.

Without this knowledge a trader will never perceive the ABCs of stable daily earnings. But why the Forex scholars do not clear out the issue? This query is to be addressed to them, not to me. While reading these opuses, I am getting horrified at the fact that we are being foisted expensive high-sounding titled books, which are not going to ever teach a trader how to attain profits at the market.

Lets open one of them (E. Naymans Traders Minor Encyclopedia and Master-trading: Secret Files) to get the understanding of the way almost all the books on Forex are written and supposed to have the price of USD20-100.

You may agree or not, but the name looks very beautiful and pretentious: Master-trading: Secret Files, 320 pages of sheer secrets

HOWEVER, I HAVENT FOUND ANY SECRETS THERE! You are welcome to discuss an argue Yourself:

1. The interrelation between fundamental factors and exchange rate dynamics being a detailed story of how a countrys macroeconomic growing, benign rumors trading and political stability promote the exchange rate growth.

A valuable secret to be practically encountered in any Forex edition. But below is a real FA secret (not paid any attention to by Nayman): why does currency use to reverse against its countrys economic news? A whole chapter here will be dedicated to the issue.

2. Construction of two moving averages on a single chart and twin combinations thereof. The author furnishes a wise recommendation: entries should be made in the direction the MAs diverge (adding secretly that the most effective MA combination is 21, 55, 89, etc., as per Fibonacci).

The pseudo-secret nature of the above recommendation underlies the fact that any MA combination (should it be 21+55, as the authors; 10+20 as in many Western trading systems; 5+8+13 as per B. Williams or 1+21 as used by numerous traders) yields the same results.

Ok. It all looks great. However, E. Nayman et al., seem to have circumvented the MA intersection chief secret, through which traders suffer constant losses: a lighter MA has crossed a heavier one, say, upwards, but thereafter there is sharp downturn resulting in the MAs intersection again.

Fig. 6. GBPUSD H1 chart as of April, 21-26, 2005. (See Note below)

A fivefold reciprocating crossing of MA 21 and 55. You are welcome to calculate traders losses.

Now, lets call it a day with examples. The MA intersection technique operates perfectly in certain circumstances, while turning out impotent in others, thus inflicting losses upon traders. No criteria have ever been stipulated by Forex scholars as to entries to be effected pro- or counter-divergence of moving averages.

3. MACD construction and analysis. What sort of secret may one expect from the following statement of Naymans: a subsequent high being lower than the preceding one suggests a bullish trend depletion or even its changing with the same being visa versa under minimum MACD values. Much of a secret, isnt it? I thought it were the MACD operation principle, familiar to any Forex novice. The secret-fancier B. Williams hasnt even taken effort to advise to perform inputs change from 9, 12, 26 into 5, 34, 5 to provide for a lag killer.

Assuming the above, authentic MACD secrets are not paid any attention to by scholar, which fact inflicts losses upon traders. The situation comes into effect, when upon a divergence formation, no trend change is observed with another same-trend wave taking place instead.

Fig. 7. GBPUSD H1 chart as of April, 2005, where MA21 crosses MA55 with slight rise and sharp downturn. (See Note below)

Another example:

Fig. 8. GBPUSD H1 chart as of May, 2005: a divergence with MA10 upward crossing MA21; a brief nudge up to 1.8916 and a sharp downturn. (See Note below)

As different from Nayman and other Forex scholars, well touch in detail upon the ways to detect when MACD is trustworthy as a trend reversal attribute and when it is not.

4. TA classical patterns. One can not help smiling at the author sharing a secret of headnshoulders and double bottom patterns, being studied by beginners at the earliest lectures on Forex.

And here goes a real key secret: in what cases the patterns are indeed indicative of a reversal but in what cases brokers trap TA pattern-fanciers? Is there someone doubting the fact that patterns are known not only to traders, but as well to brokers with their mouths watering to make a rod for the backs of lovers and connoisseurs of the above patterns, just like on the sample chart below:

Fig. 9. GBPUSD H1 chart as of May, 09-11, 2005, a classical inverted H&S (See Note below)

At 1.8871 theres an impetuous upward breakthrough, the Alligator rotating upwards, MACD above zero, MA8 having intersected MA21 upwards, the Williams vaunted Awesome Oscillator signaling long entry, the Accelerator Oscillator pointing up nevertheless, the rate reaches as far as 1.8916 and slips down to 1.8481 by 450 pts.

To be noted: much worth scrutinizing is the phenomenon of Naymans Traders Minor Encyclopedia and Master-trading: secret files purported at understanding why over 90% of traders turn losers after reading the books.

The solution, to my mind, is that the above opuses are but good ABCs OF FOREX thus giving birth to all Naymans merits and demerits.

The guy is primarily awardable for having spared beginners paying USD50-200 to various Forex training courses or academies. Instead, one can download and study Naymans books, whose extracts are, by the way, quoted to trainees during their studies.
Nayman is generally to be expressed gratitude to, because of his having laid out the Forex basic course in a competent, popular and accessible way.

This is the point, I elucidate to every beginner, being introduced to me: first one should scrutinize Naymans books, then only its worth discussing hooks and crooks of earning at Forex instead of loosing.

Nevertheless, there is a chief Naymans self-delusion about his folios really being in no way secret files with no one being able to find anything new to enable oneself to improve ones Forex earnings. These books containing neither unique techniques nor non-standard solutions are famous for the generalization and systematization of what has been the Forex knowledge prior to Nayman.

But this fact is not realized by majority gripped by the Master-trading: Secret Files fascination, who open live accounts and turn losers inevitably.

Shortly upon their pre-mature success on demo accounts these folks hastened to open live accounts and faced losses. But since the Dealers staff managed to convince them in the incidental nature of the above losses, the folks ventured to go live again and did again turn to be deposit killers.

With these facts being proclaimed, I dont hold it appropriate to call any statistics science for help. Any sensible man is to get the understanding of the above losses as not being of an incidental nature.

There could be NO OTHER WAY about it.

The next trader training level comprises books by B. Williams: Trading Chaos and New aspects of exchange trading, where the author propounds his own Forex trading methods along with advertising the other ones, viz. Elliotts.

My book, Secrets Of Craftsmanship Narrated By Professional Trader Or What B. Williams and E. Nayman Have Concealed From Traders is purported at developing of THAT particular school of training traders to practical operation at Forex.

Hardly will anyone object to the fact that B. Williams will disclose his Forex intimacies free of charge. Neither will he furnish their 100% disclosure after being paid to.

In all his splendor, Williams possessed sufficient knowledge to;

- to share A PORTION of his secrets in his Trading Chaos;

- to share A PORTION of his secrets as a paid training;

- not to share A PORTION of his secrets in the least.

My book, Secrets Of Craftsmanship Narrated By Professional Trader Or What B. Williams and E. Nayman Have Concealed From Traders is also dedicated to teaching how the Williams secret methods are to be decoded properly to ensure successful Forex trading capabilities.
Each of my books 20 chapters is permeated with a common logic aimed at finding relevant discrepancies in literature on Forex and at presenting my personal technique of Forex trading.

B. Williams declares being capable of analyzing tens of currency pairs (of 140-bar history each) that within tens of minutes, but in no way does he explain how to, whereas, I explain, that its feasible for any wide-screen trader, provided my computer monitor being 3-currency capable only (see: Ally and adversary currencies).

B. Williams sings about his magic Alligator, while I disclose and eliminate its pitfalls by, say, adding a MA233 thereto. This arrangement visualizes the whole of the 4 potential currency travel options: up/down above MA233; up/down under MA233.

B. Williams lists a stop-loss to be a safety cushion, whereas I disclose and eliminate its shortcomings by way of alternatively using my own pending orders.

B. Williams hold trades volume to be authentic resistance breakthrough criterion, while I quote reasons by which trades volume turns to be deceptive on Metatrader platforms (thanks to the banks Consortium) and I introduce my own levels true/false breach criteria.
Now, regarding trading on news, I demonstrate the way one can turn a loser if trade like all the others and I offer my own on-news trading style.

(See continuation of this article under name Forex Secret. Forex Literature As A 90-95% Of The Traders Loose Their Deposit. (Part II)

Note:

Full text of this article and pictures of examples http://www.masterforex-v.su/

If you wish to be trained on Trading System Masterforex-V – one of new and most effective techniques of trade on Forex in the world visit http://www.masterforex-v.su/

Author: Vyacheslav Vasilevich
Article Source: EzineArticles.com
Provided by: How Electric Pressure Cookers Work

Forex Secret – Moving Averages As The Basic Indicator At Forex

The given chapter is dedicated to the problem of Moving Averages (MA). It is one of the principal indices at Forex. In their book “Computer analysis of future markets”, Ch. Lebo and D. Douglas state that the greatest sums of real money are earned by making use exactly of the MA index. Even taken together, all other technical indices are less helpful. This is true. However, Ch. Lebo and D. Douglas have not mentioned that 19 of 20 traders do lose their game when they mainly use this index (MA).

Here I try to expose the origin of such a high rate of losses and losers (19 of 20 traders!). The losses are caused by a somewhat simplified approach to the utilization of this so important technical index by “classicists” of Forex. The analogous view on MA index is inherent in the up-to-date analysts as well. Further, traders do the same. However, for the latter misunderstanding of the analytical approach to MA results in losses of real money at Forex.

Take a look at the charts submitted by J. Murphy in his book “The technical analysis of future markets” (Part 9). There plots are keep on “migrating” (roaming) from one manual of Forex to another.

Chart 14.1. There is an example of combination of the 10-days simple MA (SMA) with the 40-days one. The reader should pay attention how accurately the tendency in price movement is repeated by the short 10-days MA. The 40-days MA is behind of the price movement somewhat farther. MA value evens up (levels) the spread of prices. At the same time, these MA are always keep on being behind from the market dynamics in time. The 10-days MA is designated as the solid line; the 40-days MA is presented in the form of the dotted line. (For view picture see notes in end of article)

Chart14.2. There is an example of the 20-days simple MA. Traders regard intersections of MA curves by prices as signals for opening the corresponding positions. In the period that corresponds to the chart right border, the price indices are below the MA curve. This indicates that the market is at the stage in decline . One should pay attention to the following fact. The 20-days MA curve evens up the price dynamics. All the same, this 20-days MA curve is keeping behind from the market dynamics in time.

(For view picture see notes in end of article)

According to these pictures, everything is clear – isn’t it? That is, at a certain point one must stake on “sell”, at another point one must stake on “buy”, etc. Probably, looking at this chart, any beginner could think that his account would be doubled after several days of the work at Forex. However, in fact, just 1 of 20 traders does earn his money. At the same time, all traders (19 losers included) make use of MA index in this or that form during their work at Forex.

Hence, one must get to learn how to make use of MA in order to gain profit but not to sustain damages.

First, let us examine the problems concerning MA. One must understand the reasons why the majority of traders lose their money when using MA. After this, one must find the way-out.

The problem #1. Which charts the classicists of Forex do not include into their manuals.

Let us scrutinize the graphs given below. After this, you can clearly understand why 19 of 20 traders leave Forex for good.

Chart 14.3. From March 24 till April 16, 2006, in EUR/USD pair movement the 10th and 40th MA intersected one another 11 times. (For view picture see notes in end of article)

Chart 14.4. From January 13 till February 3, 2006, in USD/JPY pair movement the 10th and 40th MA have 12 times intersected one another. (For view picture see notes in end of article)

Chart 14.5. From February 16 till April 16 of 2006, in GBP/USD pair movement 10th and 40th MA have 13 times intersected one another. (For view picture see notes in end of article)

Chart 14.6. From March 14 till April 7 of 2006, in GBP/USD pair movement 10th and 40th MA have intersected one another 9 times. (For view picture see notes in end of article)

The conclusions are the following.

Here we deal with a flat. In contrast to the trend, in a flat MA don’t “obey” the rules submitted in the classical manuals. Rather on the contrary, when a faster MA intersects a slower one, it can be a sign of an imminent reversal. Respectively, a deal must be open in the direction opposite to the MA opening. Such a situation is typical of a trend within the time frame (TF) smaller than a flat within a larger TF.

Conclusions.

One must not regard MA separately from the flat and trend – how it has been done in all classical manuals of Forex.

As regards the duration in time, a flat is longer than a trend.

First of all, you must learn to clearly distinguish the moment of the flat finish (end) from the start of the trend. Only after this you may open a real account at Forex. Otherwise, you will lose your money – as it does happen to 19 of 20 traders.

The problem #2. Within what TF one should work with MA. Some classicists of Forex prefer D1 (DeMark). J. Murphy uses M5 (for the intra-day trading) and up to W1. E. Neiman and B. Williams use D1, W1, etc.

However, these specialists avoid answering the principal question. That is, what a trader must do when MA are reversed towards different directions in various TF.

For instance, within M5 MA go upwards.

Within H1 they go downwards.

On the contrast, MA do come together in the chart H4.

A. Elder has partially explained this problem in his three-shield system. Advantages and drawbacks of this approach are examined in a separate chapter.

The problem #3. There can be trends strong or weak . Let us examine a trend of the simplest kind – i.e., the intra-session one (see the chart on February 13, 2006). To the participants of Masterforex-V Trading Academy, I recommended the following.

a). As regards the European session on February 13, 2006, I advised to make super-short deals on “sale” with GBP/EUR pair.

b). As regards the American session on February 13, 2006, I advised to make super-short deals on “buy” with the same currency pairs (GBP/EUR).

c). As regards the European session on February 14, 2006, I recommended to make a prolonged deal on “sale” (all over the trading session).

d). As regards the American session on February 14, 2006, I advised to make super-short deals on “buy” with the same currency pairs.

In any classical manual of Forex the criteria of the difference between the strong (heavy) or weak (feeble) trends are not pointed out. Consequently, the two advices to a trader can be given.

A). to “allow the profit to come in (to flow)” when the trend is strong (heavy).

B). to open super-short deals to gain the profit of 10-20 points because the currency pair movement is restricted, which is detectable during the very first movements.

This technique, when used in the daily trading in Masterforex-V Trading Academy, gives reasons to doubt the correctness of the statements made by Ch. Lebo and D. Lucas. In their book “The computer analysis of future markets”, the authors state that MA indices always indicate the trend direction. However, with MA one cannot estimate the trend strength (the heaviness or weakness of this trend). It is especially important if one estimates the trend strength with the help of MA indices, taken from other systems of Forex technical analysis.

Problem #4. MA index drawbacks exert influence on other technical indicators, based on them (MA). Therefore, such indicator will deceive a trader during trades even more than MA does it.

For instance, there are MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence ), Alligator, Awesome Oscillator, CCI (Commodity Channel Index), Moving Average Envelopes, Moving Average of Oscillator, Bollinger Bands, Stochastic Oscillator, etc. All such indices are based on MA. When developing such indices, the authors issued from MA. Further each of them added to this basis what he liked. It could be the rate of change in the price, the trading volume, the closing price value with respect to the previous data, etc. Who has added what to MA does not make a secret. One can learn it, for instance, from MetaTrader software engineers from MetaQuotes Software Corp.

In this connection, there arise the following questions.

1. What for each author adds to MA a characteristic according to his own choice?

2. Why there are so many indicators and, consequently, their developers? Why an improvement, made by one creator, has not satisfied a subsequent author?

3. What a drawback is inherent in the notion of MA itself – so that they must be infinitely (and to no effect) be improved, being unusable in their original form?

Hence, a large number of professionals waste their time, understanding that the indices available are unusable. You can judge by yourself. Let us put oscillators at the foot (bottom) of the chart. One can pick them out of one’s choice – even all of them. In practice, all charts demonstrate the same. That is, each of newer designers has realized the drawbacks in the work of his predecessor. However, an original oscillator, developed by every new specialist, indicates the same data as oscillators developed by a previous author.

Problem #5. According to J. Murphy, the following approach is axiomatic in the framework of the classical Forex (see “Technical analysis of future markets”; Part 9). The point of entering the deal is the crossing of a slower MA by a quicker one. For instance, if MA #10 intersects MA #40 top-down, this corresponds to opening a deal on “sell”. I can give thousands of examples when the deal opening in accordance with this formula was too late. This can happen in the cases of the trend strategic/tactical correction – especially under the conditions of strategic reversals. Otherwise, the deal opening according to this formula can be erroneous (fallacious) – in a flat. The above-given charts illustrate some cases when the opening according to this formula is wrong.

Thus, a vicious circle becomes developed. On the one hand, the period length must be taken into account in order to exclude the “market noise” influence. On the other hand, one must consider the delay in MA as compared with real changes in the market. This problem is still unsolved.

The higher is MA number (100, 200), the weaker is MA reaction to the “market noise”. At the same time, the delay in MA during reversals is more considerable.

The smaller is MA number (5, 10), the more intensive is MA reaction to the “market noise”. That is, an ordinary (common) correction can be mistaken for a heavy and rash reversal.

Problem #6. For traders, improvement in MA results in consequences even worse. All theorists and traders acknowledge that MA are being late. However, methods in solving the given problem are imperfect (so to say, “middle-of-the-road”). For instance, instead of simple MA, the following improved versions are submitted:

* Exponential Moving Average;
* Smoothed Moving Average;
* Linear Weighted Moving Average.

There are individuals who prefer to change simple MA into exponential MA, etc. (they consider this to be the means of optimization this index). J. Murphy struck such “admirers” the heaviest blow. In “Technical analysis of future markets” (Part 9), he quoted a certain statistics. These data were initially submitted in the paper “Computers will help you in the game at future markets” by Hockhaimer in YB “Commodities”, 1978. There the analysis is given to effectiveness of different ??? (TA) in the period 1970-1976 at various future markets. The conclusion is the following. The simple MA is the most effective.

Ch. Lebo and D. Lucas arrived at the analogous conclusion. These authors admit that there is a seeming (apparent) refinement of weighted- and exponential MA. However, in practice, every test observed or carried out by them indicates decided superiority of simple MA to all others from the viewpoint of gaining profit. According to Ch. Lebo and D. Lucas, the application of exponential MA, as a rule, results in “jerking”, too costly for traders. This confirms the authors’ opinion. That is, if a method of entering the deal is based on obscure calculations, there are more negative consequences of its application than positive ones. The future trade is rather art than a science. The mathematical refinement of a method does not guarantee profits.

Such conclusions makes a true shock for those who neglect the problem of MA – for those who just prefer to replace simple MA by exponential-, smoothed- and linear-weighted ones. In particular, this concerns E. Neiman. The latter, in “Trader’s small encyclopedia”, persistently (strongly) recommends to apply the exponential MA (EMA). He states that simple MA to times reacts to one change in the course. Figuratively speaking, the simple MA (SMA) “barks” as a dog. For the first time this happens when a new value is received. For the second time the “barking” is heard when this value is quitted from the calculation of MA. As compared with SMA, EMA reacts to the change in one value of the course just once – i.e., when this value is received. This is why EMA is preferable.

Comments. As the charts given below indicate, MA crosses the price 11 times. However, where did E. Neiman see dogs who cannot “bark” more than once or twice? One can imagine how many traders have lost their deposits due to the recommendations given by E. Neiman .

The charts submitted below confirm my statements. Everybody can compare SMA with EMA in order to independently answer the following question. Is it preferable to apply rather EMA than SMA (as E. Neiman insists)? Or the difference between these indices is minimal? As one can see, analysts of Forex just play with exponential-, smoothed- and linear-weighted MA. In practice, various “improvements” in SMA do not heighten the working trader’s profits.

Chart 14.7. EUR/USD pair movement on April 17-24, 2006(For view picture see notes in end of article)

Chart 14.8. EUR/USD pair movement on April 17-24, 2006(For view picture see notes in end of article)

Both J. Murphy and Hockhaimer were perfectly correct in pointing out the difference between SMA and EMA. At the same time, they have not drawn the principal conclusion that one can easily make issuing from the statistics submitted by these authors. That is both types of MA just slightly differ one from another. Besides, the same drawbacks are inherent in the both variants of MA.

According to J. Murphy, deals must be opened after a slower MA is intersected by a faster one. However, in this case occurs a substantial (time) delay. This is depicted in the above-given charts (the intersection of MA ##10, 40). One can clearly see that MA intersection takes place when almost a half of the path is already passed through.

According to J. Murphy, a deal must be opened not after the first intersection of MA ##10 and 40 but after the second one (the so-called “optimization”). However, I can give a large number of examples where the 1st intersection yields hundreds point of profit. At the same time, the 2nd intersection occurs in a flat (in its essence, it is attenuation of the previous basic movement). That is, J. Murphy does not recommend opening a deal during this basic intensive movement! Besides, as one can see in these charts, MA 12 times intersect one another. According to J. Murphy, which intersection is the 2nd one?

How can J. Murphy recommend such “optimization” when it results in the following?

Table 14.1

The kind of commodity assets

The best combination

The net accumulated profits or damages

The maximum sequence of damages

The total number of deals

The number of profitable deals

The number of deals made at a loss

GBP

3,49

117,482

-7,790

160

68

92

DM

4,40

78,631

-3,909

169

78

91

JPY

4,28

120,899

-4,367

131

74

57

SWISSI

6,50

172,454

-7,467

148

66

82

As one can see, J. Murphy’s results after his “optimization” are worse than 50/50. That is 322 deals of 608 are made at a loss.

J. Murphy made an attempt to artificially combine MA with timing loops (time cycles). For this purpose, he made use of Fibonacci number “mysticism”. That is, he chose Fibonacci numbers according to his own tastes. Applying such numbers in some cases, under other conditions he “happily forgot” about them. In this sense, the case of MA ##10 and 40 is typical.

J. Murphy has not elaborated a universal combination of MA. In each example different combinations of MA are submitted (either 10-40 or 1-21, or 13-34-144, or 4-9-18, etc.).

And what is more, according to J. Murphy, MA duration must be chosen so that it should correspond to the cycles that determine the given market development.

As a trader, I arrive at the distressing conclusions concerning J. Murphy technique of MA application at Forex – as J. Murphy gives examples of currency pairs.

J. Murphy uses different combinations of MA at the daily trades. However, as a trader, he has not elaborated his own “working” combination of MA.

Different MA can be required for different charts. J. Murphy clearly garbles historical examples of situations at the market, suitable for various combinations of MA.

J Murphy himself considers that one can get a reliable prognosis with the help of his charts. The reader can develop his own opinion concerning this statement. Just I wonder, of what kind this “reliable prognosis” can be. Really, a universal technique of giving analysis to the market is not developed. In addition, in different situations different MA are used.

However, J. Murphy never kept back that he was not a trader but a “technical analyst” and a Professor in New-York Financial Institute. In spring, 1981 the leadership of this institute ask him to organize a course of the technical analysis.

As far as I’m concerned, I made no secret of my attitude towards “analysts”. Really, to what the latter can teach a beginner or an experienced trader if such “analyst” cannot work at the stock exchange himself?

As it is evident, an author of detective stories (even the most gifted individual but not a lawyer) will never be invited to lecture in a department of law. At the same time, the analogous situation at Forex is almost a rule. For instance, training courses at Forex Brokers are mainly based on the books by J. Murphy and E. Neiman. I have already exposed mistakes, inaccuracies and drawbacks, inherent in just one chapter (#9) of the book “Technical analysis of future markets” by Murphy. As regards the whole book, the number of mistakes of various types is about several hundreds. All courses of training attached to various Forex Brokers contain those very mistakes. As the result, at least 19 of 20 traders lose their deposits.

However either E. Neiman or J. Murphy and other “analysts” don’t do this. Probably, E. Neiman, a leading employee of “UkrSocBank”, has no MA working combination of his own. Maybe, he just writes “financial bestsellers”. According to Alpina public house, in his books the basic notions and techniques, necessary for the successful trading, are submitted in the form easy of access. This is a point to be considered.

In brief, one can make the following conclusions.

MA is an important parameter from the viewpoint of giving analysis to Forex market and gaining regular profits there.

At present, the MA problem presentation technique by “classicists” of Forex has clearly appeared in deadlock. This is why the overwhelming majority of traders lose their money.

I would like to emphasize the following. Either the numbers of MA, or their modifications (the simple-, exponential-, or linear weighted MA) do not matter. One must clearly distinguish when the work either along – or against MA reversal would be preferable. The reader must open a real account not earlier clearly understanding of the following factors. One must know when to work on the MA reversal and when against it. One must see with which other systems of analysis the technique of MA should be combined – in order to detect long and super-short deals. One must learn the signs of reversal and the trend continuation – as well as correlation between the trends themselves. You see, your chances to get into the company of 19 traders-losers from 20 are considerably prevail the opportunity of being 1 of 20 traders who regularly gains profit at Forex.

Note:

Full text of this article and pictures of examples http://www.masterforex-v.su/001_014.htm

If you wish to be trained on Trading System Masterforex-V – one of new and most effective techniques of trade on Forex in the world visit http://www.masterforex-v.su/

Author: Vyacheslav Vasilevich
Article Source: EzineArticles.com
Provided by: Cool mobile gadgets

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